IT is certainly not over yet, but after this week’s victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii, Barack Obama is stretching his lead over Hillary Clinton to be the Democrat candidate for the White House this November. John McCain, who looks to have the Republican nomination in the bag, has seemed to indicate who he thinks will be challenging him, by launching a tough attack on Obama, pointing up his lack of experience compared with his wealth of rhetoric. This may, however, be politicking, with McCain actually preferring to take on the arguably more vulnerable Hillary than having to cope with a Kennedy-style tidal wave of hope for political change and renewal from Obama.

American politics, however, can get dirty. The Hillary camp’s attempt to show up Obama for plagiarizing the words of his friend Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick was a mild shot compared with the muckraking in candidates’ personal lives that has distorted the hustings in past presidential primaries. As it was Obama was able to parry the blow by saying he shared Patrick’s views and his friend was on his campaign team. Obama’s people also pointed out that Hillary had herself stolen lines from his campaign.

The pundits agree that everything depends on the March 4 contests in Texas and Ohio. If these turn out to be the 11th and 12th consecutive wins for Obama, then the Hillary campaign is dead in the water. If, however, the former first lady can win just one of these states, with their big delegate tallies, she is still in with a chance. Nevertheless, analysts are already trying to work out just how radically an Obama presidency would transform American policy and the country’s place in the world.

But even if he may almost have the nomination sewn up, the outcome of the election in November is still uncertain. This is because McCain is no Bush clone. Indeed his liberal outlook makes many traditional Republicans distinctly uneasy. Because he is aged 71, McCain’s vice-presidential choice will be particularly important and Republican bigwigs may well want to see a conservative on the ticket. That backroom tussle before the Republican Convention in Minneapolis on Sept. 1 will be the next big battle that McCain will have to fight.

He will doubtless argue that simply because of his age, the vice president who would be “a heartbeat away from the presidency” will need to share his liberal views. That way the McCain campaign could go up against either Hillary or Obama with a clear agenda for change. And if it is Obama that has to be defeated, McCain’s liberal sentiments and well-worn air of experience and quiet confidence could play well with Americans.

It should not be forgotten that though the rest of the world is focusing on the future of US foreign policy, it is domestic policies that will win the White House. America is heading into economic hard times. Will Americans turn to an untried, charismatic and eloquent Obama or a steady, nondoctrinaire old man with a wealth of years?