KOFI Annan is a patient man, but the respected former UN secretary-general has had his patience tested to the limit by the failure of his month-long effort to bring agreement between Mwai Kibaki, who claimed victory in December’s presidential election, and his opponent Raila Odinga, who asserts that the results were rigged during a three-day delay by the Electoral Commission.
Annan’s people have made it clear that while he has apparently obtained agreement on salient issues from both Kibaki and Odinga, once the matters returned to the negotiators appointed by both sides, the points have once again been disputed. Although Annan does not spell it out, the main problem has been the Kibaki camp. Odinga, aware that his claim that the vote was rigged is widely supported by the international community, has played the more statesman-like role, accepting in principle an interim power-sharing administration before the election is rerun or the votes recounted. Odinga’s agreement to postpone indefinitely mass demonstrations by his Orange Democratic Party supporters originally scheduled for today also looks responsible. But, in fact, Odinga knows that even though his supporters have not been exclusively responsible for the bloodletting and mayhem that has seen more than a 1,000 dead and 600,000 people forced from their homes by communal violence, further demonstrations would be seen by the international community as provocative and undermine his political position. By acceding to Annan’s request to stop them from going ahead, he captures another piece of the moral high ground.
Unfortunately appearing to be in the right is not going to solve this dangerous standoff. Kibaki still holds the reins of power and the police have demonstrated their willingness to support him. An official complaint to them about a very specific instance of ballot rigging has reportedly “disappeared” into the bureaucracy. Opposition politicians are not prepared to turn to the courts because they maintain the judiciary has been packed with Kibaki supporters. Meanwhile, threats by an angry EU to take stern economic measures seem only to have hardened the resistance of ministers Kibaki quickly appointed after the election.
That he may have wrecked his economy and brought violent tribal-based discord to a country once renowned for its stability, clearly does not bother Kibaki or he would have backed away from his present obdurate course of action, the minute the likely consequences became clear. Instead, he seems much like other Third World leaders. Prepared to cling on to power and the enriching opportunities it brings to him and his cronies, rather than put his country first. The irony is that much of the violence has been between poor Kenyans who have been entirely let down by what was one of Africa’s most flourishing economies.
This may well be Kofi Annan’s toughest ever challenge and somehow he must keep both sides negotiating. A country’s homogeneous future is at stake.
