Even by the standards of Gaza it has been a dreadful period. Israel’s military incursion at the end of February into the Gaza Strip, only 35km by 10km containing 1.5 million desperately poor residents, many living in crowded, muddy and miserable refugee camps, led to what have been the bloodiest days since this intefada began seven years ago. Some 125 Gazans were killed, and over half of that number were innocent civilians unconnected with the rocket attacks over the border into Israel. A number of children died, including a 21-month-old baby.
We are by now familiar with the Hamas arguments. In brief, a high percentage of those living in Gaza are refugees who were driven from their homes in Palestine by the Israelis decades ago. Hamas will never forgive or forget. Hamas will not recognize the State of Israel; indeed it should be taken off the map. Fatah has become a tool of the Americans and much of the West, and is prepared to concede too much to Israel. If one day it could achieve a Palestinian state, that state would be too small and unsustainable. Hamas won the last election in Gaza and not Fatah. Hamas still has the people on its side.
When it comes to the daily barrages of rockets, the Gazans are divided. Israel’s incursion followed the death of a 44-year-old Israeli in Sderot. That town of mainly North African immigrants, less than three kilometers from Gaza, has been hit over the past four years with some 2,000 rockets of increasing range and explosive power. Nine of its citizens have been killed. Homemade Qassam rockets are used, and Iranian-constructed Grad missiles with a 12-mile range that can reach the southern city of Ashkelon.
Many in Gaza feel the rockets are counterproductive. When the odd Israeli is killed, the Israeli response always leads to many more Palestinians being killed. It also damages the image of the Palestinians for it is towns and not military bases that are attacked.
However, the hard-liners — thought to be a minority — say that suicide bombing has been too difficult to achieve since the Israeli Wall went up, and rockets are the only weapons to hand against the might of the Israeli military machine. The rockets remind comfortable Israelis the Palestinians have not gone away and will not go away. A political solution is required for them. If the Israeli Army sends its soldiers into Gaza again, as is widely expected, it will become easier to attack Israeli soldiers.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his military advisers in Israel must realize that ground raids into Gaza are ineffective. They do not stop the rockets. The Israelis need to find the rockets, often hidden under blocks of flats and houses, and prevent their supply to Hamas. Both are almost impossible to do in practice. This time Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations’ secretary-general, condemned what he referred to as “disproportionate use of force”, while also criticizing the launching of the rockets. For many years now in the occupied territories, in Gaza and in Lebanon “disproportionate” is the word everybody uses to describe Israel’s behavior. Even the Americans expressed their concern over the high number of civilian deaths.
Ehud Barak, Israel’s defense minister, makes increasingly warlike noises, no doubt much frustrated that his modern and mighty forces cannot stop a rain of short range rockets. He informed the Israeli press that his army could even increase its operations in Gaza into a full-scale invasion to “weaken the Hamas rule, in the right circumstances, even to bring it down.” We all know that the return of Israel’s troops and tanks into Gaza unites the local people behind Hamas — and, in many cases also, its rocket teams.
What did he mean by talking of overthrowing the Hamas government? It was properly elected, not entirely because Hamas was loved and admired, but because the Fatah alternative was seen as crony-ridden, corrupt and useless. As in Israel, the basic idea of having a democracy is that it offers, and puts in sometimes, an alternative government.
How is the Hamas government going to be pulled down by Israel? Israel left Gaza correctly in 2005 and it would be crazy for Israel to return in 2008.
Condoleezza Rice, the American secretary of state, who has avoided pointing the finger during her visit to the region, has persuaded the Israelis and Palestinians to resume peace talks. It makes sense for both to agree to this and stay with the Annapolis initiative.
