Now the liberal mediaocracy has cast itself into a slough of despond over the Democrats’ electoral prospects. The almost universal line runs that while McCain has months as Republican candidate to be presidential, the Democrats face a divisive primary battle that will split the party. The dilemma posed is that while Hillary Clinton might beat Barack with the party faithful, only Barack can beat McCain in the main event with the American people.
However, the wide-eyed politicos all a-flutter at Obama’s Nike-ad cool and charisma should reconnect with their brains. Hillary’s comeback is not some fluke or the wages of sin for “going negative” — I’m sure I’m not the only one who does actually worry about an elevated junior senator receiving that proverbial 3 a.m. call. She has maintained her strength all through this campaign with key Democratic constituencies. It’s just the fall of primary contests that has obscured this reality. Constituencies, it has to be said, which are usually mentioned by liberal commentators with a sense of distaste, if not disgust.
They are women — and older women, ie the ones most likely to vote; blue-collar workers — that is, speak it softly, the working class; and Latinos, the largest minority ethnic group now in the US. That’s actually a pretty large chunk of the Democratic coalition. African-Americans, not surprisingly, are now breaking for Obama, but at the start of the contest they were remarkably ambivalent, and there must be a strong chance that if Hillary were to win the nomination they would return to the fold, given the traditional support for the Clintons. That leaves the young, liberal middle-class outside the fold. But if the West Wing crowd is left out on a limb, that’s no bad thing. They have monopolized power for too long at the expense of ordinary people. And, like, where are they going to go? Rally behind the proud Vietnam veteran and Iran bomber McCain? As even the whiff of power reached their nostrils, the prospect of influence and the extensive patronage that American presidents, regrettably, have at their disposal, would see them back on the ticket.
No one doubts that Obama is an attractive, eloquent and articulate politician, who has electrified a contest heading for dull attrition. And he is, as far as the touchstone issue of Iraq is concerned, untainted. He is also untried in any major position of power — and as the “negative” Hillary has had the temerity to point out, disturbingly light on specific policies.
Yes, America needs change — but not just any change. And hope — but remember what happened to the hope of the man from Hope when he faced the reality of the political bearpit that is Washington. The change that America needs is clear — a shift of power and wealth and income toward ordinary working people. The hope it needs is of someone tough enough to push it through against the corporate behemoths that run America with a power that makes medieval barons look like parish councilors.
It’s hard to see Obama being that person. Hillary may lag in the charm stakes, but no one could say she’s not tough. Cosmetic makeovers can’t hide the inner geeky girl with thick glasses that Bill first met. And as far as the most pressing reform needed — on healthcare — she has previous. There can be little doubt that this holds a place in her psyche comparable to Iraq with Bush. She got beat once, she won’t want to sound the retreat a second time.
But social reform won’t come parceled and posted by one person, however tough. It’ll only happen if there’s a broad and committed social movement behind it. One that can be mobilized when bankers present the trillion-dollar blackmail note. And that means political organization. In fact, the very same organization dismissed contemptuously by the Barackistas as the “Democratic machine”. The very one the critics attack Clinton for being too attached to. But that’s the way you get people to meetings, and out on the streets with placards, and lobbying their representatives — and, if necessary, marching on Washington itself. Logging on to a website is not a political commitment.
The grueling democratic contest ahead is not some diversion. It’s about the debate, lobbying and disagreements involved in squaring off competing social groups and interests. A process that will hopefully lead to a political program for real reform that has genuine support, because it’s been forged by the people in whose name it speaks and aims to act.
Will that be enough?
Everybody concedes Obama has had an easy ride with the media so far. The chances are that were he to win the nomination, McCain and the shock jocks will have him for breakfast. And if they don’t, Wall Street will. Hillary is the real candidate of change.
