WHETHER it’s the announcement of the presidential election results or the holding of the presidency itself, the Robert Mugabe story has dragged on for too long. At this uncertain postelection moment, Zimbabwe remains in limbo after Mugabe’s party lost the parliamentary vote in last weekend’s balloting; the final vote count has not yet been officially released. But Mugabe may not be ready to give up power any time soon.
With every passing day, tensions rise and suspicion grows that Mugabe and his dwindling number of die-hard supports are plotting to thwart what at least his rival Morgan Tsvangirai calls an overwhelming victory. One attempt is to seek a runoff. In the meantime, these reported hush-hush meetings and telephone calls among chiefs and some of Mugabe’s closest aides are aimed at damage control or at trying to persuade Mugabe not to prolong his and the country’s agony.
Zimbabwe is a country in deep trouble. It was once among the most vibrant and prosperous economies of the continent. Today, in the townships, it is hard to eke out a living with unemployment and inflation at 100,000 percent or even more. What used to be a regional economic model has, in two decades, been reduced to a basket case. With an unemployment rate of some 80 percent, around three million of Zimbabwe’s 13 million population has left the country in search of work and food as even basics such as bread and cooking oil are now hard to find. In recent years, Zimbabwe has been plagued by the world’s highest inflation, as well as acute food and fuel shortages, which have driven many voters to back the opposition. It is nothing less than a wonder, given the economic straits most Zimbabweans are in, that the elections were held in peace. That may be because the situation is not as bad as outsiders think. To listen to the international media, one would imagine that millions of Zimbabweans are gasping to see the back of Mugabe. Yet even his critics concede that he is popular in the rural areas; his land-grab policy won him accolades among his own people as well as throughout southern Africa and beyond. The income gap between townspeople and those in the countryside is considerable, but not growing. If anything, the gap is actually closing. Indeed, at least in some rural parts of the country, peasant farmers can live off the land.
Mugabe’s hold on Zimbabwe might be tenuous but never underestimate the man. He is a seasoned politician and knows that he still can hold on, even if he did lose the presidential election. The Zimbabwean Army, the police and the Central Intelligence Organization are all behind him as are many of his people. And so too is his Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front which has ruled Zimbabwe firmly since independence from Britain in 1980. Mugabe may desperately be seeking ways of clinging to power, as his rule looks to be coming to an end.
However, in the end, it might be time for Mugabe, 84, to go. And this time it is quite possible that he will.
