“You got really pummeled.” Thus a sympathetic lady at a Barack Obama rally on the morning after the night before — the night before being Wednesday’s latest, and certainly most venomous, in the series of 21 candidates’ debates that began in early 2007, the mists of prehistory by the standards of this campaign without end for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The lady’s comment was no exaggeration. In Philadelphia’s National Constitution Center, Obama was subjected to a two-hour battering, first by the questions of the ABC News moderators and then by the barbed answers of his opponent, Hillary Clinton. On Tuesday, however, comes the true gauge of his performance. After six strange weeks without a single primary, Pennsylvania, swing state and unmatched cross-section of the entire country, votes in what has become the most keenly awaited and minutely dissected contest of the season.
Measured by numbers alone, Obama’s overall lead has remained pretty stable since the last major votes in early March, when Hillary kept her campaign alive with wins in the Ohio and Texas primaries. In national polls and in terms of delegates, Obama retains a clear advantage. He goes into Pennsylvania with a lead of 1,415 to 1,251 in pledged delegates awarded in the primaries and caucuses so far, and though Hillary has more superdelegates — the unaffiliated party elders who may vote for either candidate — he has a comfortable lead in the overall count, of 1,648 to 1,507.
Given the proportional distribution of delegates, the New York senator has no hope of overhauling her rival in pledged delegates — even if she were to win in all eight remaining contests, ending with Montana and South Dakota on June 3. By the same token, without superdelegates, Obama has no way of reaching the winning post of 2,025 needed to secure the nomination.
As of Friday evening, 256 superdelegates had publicly lined up behind Hillary, and 233 behind Obama, but that advantage has narrowed considerably. Since “Super Tuesday” on Feb. 5 — the jumbo primary day that was supposed to settle the race but which in effect created the current deadlock — the Obama camp claims to have picked up 80 superdelegates compared with just five for Hillary. Nonetheless, the outcome rests with the 300-odd superdelegates who have not declared for either candidate, despite entreaties from both to do so.
Nationwide, the Illinois senator now has a double-digit lead as preferred candidate of likely Democratic voters.
With its old industrial roots, large blue-collar vote and relatively elderly population, Pennsylvania has long been seen as Hillary Clinton country. In the past month, polls suggest, her lead has shrunk from 15 percent or more to single digits.
But she is still ahead, and only if Obama scores an upset win on Tuesday will Pennsylvania end the race. Every sign is Hillary will prevail. The crucial question is by how much. The expectations game is thus all important. The Obama camp will portray a Hillary victory by fewer than five or six points as a moral victory (even though their man outspent her at least two-to-one in the state), and her fundraising may become even more difficult.
A 6 to 10 percent margin, which most experts expect, would leave matters much where they are now, with Hillary down but not yet out. But a thumping win, by a dozen points or more, would be another matter. Above all, a big win would buy her time.
American presidential campaigns, people say, go on for ever. But with good reason. Obama is still clear favorite for the nomination. But he is still in some respects a little-known figure, who was given a free pass by the media during the early primary season — largely because his national political career has been so short. For the first time this past month, he’s been under fire, and Americans are learning how he handles adversity. The answer, in fact, is not badly at all. Yes, he got pummeled. But the politician who’s never been pummeled isn’t a politician at all. And so, barring an unlikely Pennsylvania knockout, the battle goes on — to Indiana and North Carolina on 6 May, to Kentucky and Oregon in a fortnight, like Pennsylvania all potential game-changers that may change nothing at all. At least, however, there probably won’t be a 22nd debate, much as the Hillary camp would love to have one. Aren’t 21 more than enough, the Obama people say. After last week, who can blame them?
