Russia and Georgia have seemed to be on the brink of conflict several times since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Fortunately, nothing came of it. The two are at each other’s throat again; this time it is seriously worrying. Russia’s accusation that Georgia plans to attack its breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, both of which have declared themselves independent republics, and its own threat to retaliate if the Georgians do so does raises the possibility of armed conflict in the region. It is a frightening prospect. A war between the Russians and Georgians would increase tension between the West and Russia dramatically and could easily spill over into other parts of what is a deeply unstable region.
It is difficult to believe that it could end up in bloodshed; the Georgians know that they have no chance of winning against Russia if it comes to a fight. Nonetheless, the possibility cannot be ruled out. The Georgians may decide to stand up to Moscow in the belief that because this is not an “internal” affair like Chechnya, the rest of the world, and most importantly the West, will rally to their aid. The West will not — certainly not initially — because it realizes that Georgia is a potential flash point between itself and Russia. Europe has already opted to try and appease Moscow on the issue with last month’s rejection of Georgia’s bid to join NATO. Only President Bush supported the bid. The Europeans, led by Germany’s Angela Merkel, moved to avoid antagonizing the Russians.
Russia’s position is legally untenable. It has taken the line that it can interfere the affairs of a neighboring sovereign state, supporting separatists there. It is a violation of international law. But the Russians have been able to do this because of Kosovo. There, in contrast, it was the West that went in and ensured Kosovo’s departure from Serbian control while the Russians supported Serbia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Indeed, some observers say that in supporting the Abkhazians and South Ossetians, Russia is getting its own back on the West for their support of the Kosovars. That is a simplistic reading of the situation. The Russians are certainly getting their revenge, but they are getting so much more. They are getting the freedom to dictate to the Georgians, knowing that the West can do nothing about it.
There is, of course, a great deal of difference as to why the West backed Kosovo and Russia backs the Abkhazians and South Ossetians. The West instinctively understood the Kosovars’ demand for freedom after all they had suffered at the hands of the Serbs. For the Russians there are no such principles; they are simply using the secessionists to force Georgia back into Moscow’s sphere of influence. It is the West’s ill-thought-out diplomacy that has allowed this to happen — and where Russia now reaps the benefits, others will follow. The big worry, however, is what happens next. If Moscow reckons it can do whatever it wants to Georgia and it goes too far, the West will feel it has to challenge it. That is when things could turn ugly.
