The rout Thursday of the governing British Labour Party by their Conservative rivals was compounded 24 hours later when the once-popular Socialist mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, failed to win a third term in charge of the capital.
Projecting the result of a general election from the Labour defeats in the 159 municipal elections that took place is normally unwise. Governments do tend to be punished by voters in mid-term elections. Tony Blair suffered badly in 2004 but went on to win a third mandate the following year. However, this catastrophic result for Gordon Brown — the worst for Labour in over 40 years — seems to spell serious trouble for the dour prime minister.
Blair was heartily distrusted by the electorate because of the lies he used to line up the UK behind the Bush invasion of Iraq. Yet Blair won a third term in part because the Tory opposition, then led by Michael Howard, a lackluster former member of Thatcher’s governments, presented no credible alternative. But, with excellent timing, Blair quit last year allowing Brown, his long-time rival and then Chancellor of the Exchequer, to move into No. 10, at the very moment when the first lightening was striking the financial system from the gathering clouds of recession.
Brown’s problem is that since he ran the economy during a ten-year boom, when arguably even a second-rate politician could have looked good in the job, all the economic chickens that are now coming home to roost were hatched on his watch. After initial reticence, Brown reverted to the Socialist predilection for taxing and spending, running up huge debts while pouring billions of extra money into health and education, where real improvements have been disproportionately disappointing. While tax revenues were strong, he did not pay down debt. He even sold half the UK’s gold bullion at rock bottom prices.
The Labour leader’s lack of charisma and popular appeal has been made the sharper by the extraordinary grip that Blair exercised even over many of those who knew that his behavior was often contemptible. Blair also enjoyed strutting the world stage and playing the global statesman, a role he now exercises as the ambassador of the Middle East Peace Quartet with even less accountability than when he was premier. Brown, by contrast. appears to have little appetite for foreign policy. His attempt to abandon the British military occupation of Basra airport was blocked by the Americans. In Afghanistan he has settled down to a long fight against a resurgent Taleban. But he has demonstrated little initiative, and although allegedly no great fan of President Bush, continues to toe the Washington line on the Middle East.
The pity is that even if he had the imagination to try and break new ground in the Palestinian peace process by, for instance insisting Hamas be included directly in the process, his domestic problems are now consuming him. It is time to start wondering seriously if the Conservatives under David Cameron actually have a new vision for the Middle East.
