What was feared in Pakistan has happened: the victors of the February election have fallen out. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has pulled his Pakistan Muslim League (N) out of the six-week-old governing coalition over the issue of reinstating the judges dismissed by President Pervez Musharraf. Even though Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has refused to accept the resignations, the chances of the coalition surviving are not high.
There was an inevitability to this parting of the ways: Sharif and Asif Zardari, leader of the Pakistan People’s Party, the main party in the coalition, have different priorities. Sharif’s has been to get the judges reinstated and Musharraf removed from the presidency first; putting Pakistan back on its feet is a secondary priority.
It should be other way round. Pakistan needs to fix the economy now, not at some point when the Musharraf issue is resolved. That could be months down the line even if the judges were reinstated immediately. It is true that the reinstatement was an election promise and PML (N) condition for entering the coalition but Sharif’s decision to walk out over this when Pakistan is in dire need of united, effective government looks a personal agenda at work. It could be argued that he had little option, having already allowed one deadline on the issue to pass without action; he could hardly do so again without appearing weak. But he could have announced that, in the interests of the country, he was putting the issue aside for the moment to allow the government to get on with the challenges facing it. Pakistan would have applauded his statesmanship. It is deeply regrettable that he did not. There is a real danger now that the budget will be delayed, the energy crisis will continue unabated and that political disillusionment will set in. The latter is particularly dangerous because it is Al-Qaeda and its fellow travelers that will reap the rewards.
The other potential winner in this situation is Pervez Musharraf. He and his Pakistan Muslim League (Q) have been waiting for the parting of the ways, although they will have to wait a bit longer. For the moment, Sharif has closed the door but not bolted it. He says that the PML (N) will not join the opposition benches in Parliament and will continue to back the government on an issue-by-issue basis. But there is every likelihood that the door will be locked from the other side.
Gilani cannot run a government on the off chance that he will get backing from the PML (N). He needs to be assured of sufficient parliamentary support and needs to know he has partners. That is when the door may open to the PML (Q), which, in terms of the popular vote, came second in February.nBut everything will now wait till the 40 by-elections to be held on June 26; Gilani will then reassess the situation and restructure the coalition if need be. But that means more delay — and delay is not what Pakistan needs. What it needs is strong, effective and stable government.
