On May 2 Cyclone Nargis gathered speed and strength above the Bay of Bengal, and with gusts of up to 120mph smashed into the open country around the Irrawaddy Delta. The figures on the resulting damage to Myanmar are not really known. The Myanmar government is determined to play down this major catastrophe and most aid agencies are denied entry.
Myanmar state TV has said the death toll is 31,938. Oxfam fears that the number facing death across Myanmar could be as high as 1.5 million. Some 5,000 sq km remain submerged and 20,000 homes have been destroyed. It is thought that at least 142 villages are under water.
At the time of writing under 25 percent of the required aid has got into Myanmar, let alone been distributed to those in great need. Helicopters are essential. I doubt if I am exaggerating the horror of it all, when I suggest that several hundreds of thousands of Myanmar people are about to perish, without good reason, unless both aid and aid workers from abroad are quickly allowed in. Could we be contemplating the deaths of 500,000 over the next few weeks out of a national population of 46 million?
The aid agencies are pulling their hair out in frustration, as the junta attempts to keep the borders closed and handle the damage mainly with its own resources. They believe the military government, located in the new capital of Naypyidaw in the north, does not comprehend just how serious is the real situation in the delta.
The government failed to order evacuations to limit casualties as the cyclone approached; India had warned Myanmar what was coming its way. Pierre Fouillant, from Comité de Secours Internationaux, who waited for many days for a visa in Bangkok, thought he was witnessing “a crime against humanity. It should be against the law. It’s like they are taking a gun and shooting their own people.”
Aid workers know the refugees face starvation, a grave shortage of drinking water, looting and disease, as thousands of bodies of people and animals rot in the sun. Why is the junta behaving in this irresponsible and shocking way? It could be the worst government in the world — competing with the likes of Zimbabwe and North Korea. It is deeply suspicious of outsiders seeing the hand of the CIA everywhere. The generals despise the West, hate globalization and give top priority to their own political survival — no doubt fearing the wrath of their own people should this foul government be overthrown. Amazingly the government has been concentrating on a rigged constitutional referendum designed to give it some legitimacy.
Sensibly, the United Nations, the European Union and the United States have put their differences with the junta on one side, and have tried to get their aid in with the assistance of countries that are closer to the junta such as China, India and Thailand. While a few visa applications for aid workers have been accepted, many others have just vanished. After vital days had passed some large cargo aircraft were allowed to land; they had to be unloaded by hand — using up to 300 soldiers — as there was no modern unloading equipment available. Myanmar TV has shown pictures of well-dressed army officers handing out the aid to grateful refugees.
Against this dreadful background, there have been calls, with France to the fore, for the United Nations to override the junta and deliver aid to the victims. Since 1991 when food was dropped to the Kurds in the mountains of Northern Iraq, the Security Council has given less deference to state sovereignty and has shown more interest in humanitarian concerns.
At the 2005 United Nations World Summit, the General Assembly agreed the world body had the “responsibility to protect” victims of, for example, genocide or crimes against humanity. I support strongly an early debate within the Myanmar Security Council on the Myanmar Cyclone. However, the state of our world is such that China and Russia are likely to oppose a draft resolution calling for United Nations intervention. China has outrageously compared the crisis in Myanmar with the heat wave in France in 2003! South Africa, with Zimbabwe in mind, might also oppose intervention.
The international community would then be faced with the diplomatic nightmare of a mix of countries flying in aid without the permission of the junta or the backing of the Security Council. It could happen. Saving lives is more important than saving the face of this Myanmar government.
