It has not taken long for the agreement in Lebanon to be violated, mainly because it took too long for the accord to be implemented. The explosion in a block of flats in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, which killed at least two people, followed the deaths of nine others in sectarian fighting in the area last week. This does not mean the pact has collapsed. The possibility is that it could easily unravel as quickly as it was signed if the work that needs to be done is not done at once.
A peace deal may have been signed last month and a new president may have been elected, but a government of national unity still has not been formed and deep-rooted political problems remain in Lebanon.
Calling for the formation of a national unity Cabinet within the next 48 hours, new President Michel Suleiman was, for good reason, being optimistic — optimism that was evident after arguing he saw no reason for a national unity Cabinet not to be formed. While the Arab-brokered plan signed in May might not have pleased all the rival factions, it came close, certainly closer than any other previous one. Calls for forming a 30-member Cabinet in which Hezbollah and its allies have veto power over government decisions, and the election of former army chief Michel Suleiman by Parliament as a consensus president should have been huge steps on the reform and change road. But Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora is still struggling to form a Cabinet that pleases everybody.
This will prove impossible. Political power is still divided between the same parties and interest groups. It might also be that Lebanon’s underlying issues were not resolved by the Doha agreement. The Doha deal was good enough to avert an all-out war but not good enough to settle years of simmering acrimony. It was no more than a band-aid on the deep rift between the pro-Western faction and its opponents and it is this rift that has split Lebanon since former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri’s assassination three years ago and which deepened shortly after the summer 2006 war with Israel. The last three years of tension have hardened across sectarian lines, with Sunnis overwhelmingly supporting Al-Siniora’s bloc and Shiites the opposition. The pro-Western 14 March parliamentary majority and the opposition led by Hezbollah remain at loggerheads.
So Doha looks to have been a temporary truce that averted war but simply postponed the next battle, whether political or military.
Save the defense portfolio, most disagreements over who gets what appear to have been hammered out. But much present activity concerns gaining leverage in search of the greater prize, the parliamentary elections one year from now. The most heated discussions are now over service-related positions such as energy, water and transport, which enable ministers to improve services to their patronage networks.
If and when a government is formed, the wording of any ministerial policy statement it issues is likely to be a further sticking point, particularly concerning Hezbollah’s weapons.
The recent clashes in Lebanon are a reminder that the country remains split and that forming a national unity government, as prescribed in Doha, is a challenging task. But a people who were engulfed by a 15-year civil war which killed tens of thousands, who were as close as ever to a new war as late as last month in which over 80 were killed, should hold on for dear life to the lifeline thrown to them.
