The increased political attention to Afghanistan reflects widespread Western concern over rising violence, which is at its highest levels since US-led forces toppled the Taleban after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. With more international troops dying in May and June in Afghanistan than in Iraq, where violence is declining, American public attention has turned back to what was sometimes termed the “forgotten war.”
Sean Kay of Ohio Wesleyan University said the 53,000-strong NATO-led force in Afghanistan clearly needed reinforcements. “The argument is still very compelling that a substantial increase in NATO forces will make a very big difference there,” said Kay, a NATO expert.
Taleban and other fighters have been able to return to areas they abandoned in southern and eastern Afghanistan — the heartlands of the insurgency — because there are not enough troops to keep those places secure, analysts say. “You’ve got to provide security in the southern and eastern parts and that’s just not happening,” Kay said.
In addition to the NATO force, there are some 19,000 US troops in Afghanistan performing a range of other missions from counterterrorism to police training plus 63,000 Afghan soldiers and 79,000 Afghan police officers, US officials say. That makes a total of some 214,000 foreign and Afghan security personnel. But questions have been raised about the effectiveness of many of those forces. The police, in particular, are frequently accused of incompetence and corruption while some NATO nations do not allow their troops to take part in combat missions.
In Iraq, the United States has around 147,000 troops. There are also some 170,000 Iraqi troops and 365,000 Iraqi police officers.
The precise number of troops that may be required to turn the tide in Afghanistan is the subject of some debate. Jones said he was not convinced many of the figures being thrown around now were based on much rigorous analysis.
Gen. Dan McNeill, a previous commander of the NATO force, has said more than 300,000 security personnel would be required to fight an insurgency in a nation of Afghanistan’s size and population, according to formulas used in the US Army’s counterinsurgency manual.
John Nagl, a leading US counterinsurgency expert, said about 150,000 more personnel were needed to fight the insurgency. But he said a large number of those should be Afghans and suggested Afghanistan should institute a draft. “It was good enough for the United States up until 1973,” said Nagl, an author and former US Army battalion commander now at the Center for a New American Security think tank.
