THE visit to Moscow and the Georgian capital Tblisi by French President Nicolas Sarkozy accompanied by the EU’s Secretary-General Manuel Barroso and its “foreign minister” Javier Solana demonstrates how worried the Europeans are about Russia’s incursion in Georgia. This is the second time that Sarkozy, current president of the European Council, has been to Moscow and Tblisi in a month and comes just a week after the 27 members of the union, in an emergency summit, pulled off the rare feat of a united stand on the issue, condemning Russia’s recognition of South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence, suspending a planned EU-Russia partnership agreement and firmly supporting Georgia’s sovereignty.
The EU’s immediate aim is to get the Russians to pull their forces back to pre-conflict positions as they said they would in the cease-fire agreement brokered by the French president a month ago. But there is a far more serious objective than peace between Russia and Georgia. Russia’s refusal to pull back its forces has shocked the Europeans profoundly. They fear that Russia is becoming isolationist and is embarked on a course of reckless self-interest that could be dangerous for Europe itself. At the summit, President Sarkozy, speaking of the need to re-examine relations with Moscow, warned of a new era of international distrust of Moscow emerging with mounting tensions as a result. The EU statement at the summit similarly declared that relations with Moscow had reached a “crossroads”.
The European aim is to pull Moscow out of this new isolation. For them, the danger is that, otherwise, Moscow may turn its fire on EU members. Russia has already warned Poland and the Czech Republic of a response “other than diplomatic” if they permit the Americans to locate their missile defense shield on their territory. It has also regularly warned Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia about the treatment of Russian speakers, many of whom are Russian citizens (important because Moscow’s initial justification for intervention in South Ossetia was the “protection” of Russian citizens there) and has said that it regards the three country’s membership of NATO as a threat to itself. In normal circumstances the ever-present friction between Moscow and its former Baltic subjects can be overcome. But in an era of renewed Cold War? It is not only in the EU’s interest that Russia not isolates itself from Europe. It is in Russia’s as well. In the month since the invasion, international banks and investors, already worried about just how investment-friendly the market now is, have pulled an estimated $20 billion out of the country. As a result, despite earning over $1 billion a day from oil and gas exports, the ruble has plunged and has had to be supported by the central bank while the Russian stock exchange has dropped over 30 percent. The government cannot afford for Russia to be seen as a risk case. It needs investment. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, when president, managed to restore the economy to health. That is one of the main reasons why he is so popular.
It is in the rest of the world’s interest too that Russia not isolates itself. Tensions between Russia and Europe, Russia and the US, will play out across the globe. It is not going to be easy persuading Russia to pull its troops back to pre-conflict positions; it is a proud country and Putin cannot afford to lose face. But faced with investor retreat and, for the first time, a united EU, his room for maneuver is limited. Even the threat to cut off gas supplies to Europe is something of a double-edged weapon; Russia needs to sell as much as Europe needs to buy. What is encouraging is that the EU is not taking an aggressive line against the Russians that would only antagonize them. Although firm, it wants a constructive relationship with Moscow. That should help but whether it averts a slide into a new Cold War is for Prime Minister Putin to decide. The ball is in his court.
