Tomorrow, Israel's ruling Kadima party will pick a new leader, who will wrest the prime ministerial role from its discredited incumbent Ehud Olmert, accused of mismanaging the 2006 war with Hezbollah, corruption and money laundering.
Out of four contenders, only two are in with a chance - Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the frontrunner, and Transport Minister/Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, who trails her in the polls by anything from 4 to15 percent. The other candidates Public Security Minister Avi Dichter and Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit will be lucky to drum up 11 percent of the party's vote between them.
For those of us who believe that peace between Israel and the Palestinians is paramount to the region's long-term security, a Livni win would hardly constitute a cause for celebration but would elicit relief in light of her main rival's hard-line positions
Mofaz is an Iranian-born Jew, who immigrated to Israel from Tehran in 1957 at the age of nine. Married with four children, this former IDF chief of staff and minister of defense and veteran of just about every conflict involving Israel has become more hawkish over the decades and, indeed, he considers himself to be a natural successor to "the Butcher of Beirut" Ariel Sharon.
Believed to have been behind the virtual imprisonment of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, Mofaz is thought to be the architect of house demolitions, targeted assassinations of high-profile Palestinian leaders, repeated assaults on Gaza and the brutal attack on Jenin when IDF bulldozers brought down homes on people's heads and civilians were shamelessly used by Israeli soldiers as human shields.
He was also a driving force behind the apartheid wall that carves Palestinian lands separating families from one another, their workplaces, their orchards and their olive groves. Needless to say, he is reluctant to cede territory for peace and intends to hang on to Jerusalem come what may, saying "Jerusalem is not a piece of real estate, and no one has the authority to re-divide it".
Mofaz has been accused by an Israeli law professor of possible war crimes after reportedly calling for the IDF to ensure a minimum of 70 Palestinian deaths during the second intifada, which he ruthlessly sought to crush. Reports in Israeli newspaper Haaretz suggest that he ordered those under his command to fire at armed Palestinians regardless of whether or not they posed an imminent threat.
In other words, Mofaz is a nasty piece of work by most people's reckoning. If he should manage to elbow Livni out by some awful twist of fate, the messianic crowd, anxious for the world as we know it to end, will have a field day.
On the other hand, Tzipi Livni - dubbed "the Iron Lady" - is still an enigma. Rumored to be a former Mossad terrorist hunter, Livni is coolly charismatic, elegant, sophisticated and multilingual with an I.Q. of 150. Married with two teenage sons, she has ten years practicing law under her belt and, by comparison, makes John McCain's pit bull with lipstick seem like a hick.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is so impressed with her Israeli counterpart that she was driven to compliment her new "friend" in Time Magazine.
"Tzipi, 48, is a woman of conviction, intelligence and peace. I deeply respect her. I like being around her. And I know that long after we have both exited the world stage, we'll still be friends," wrote the admiring Ms. Rice.
A daughter of militant Irgun members arrested on charges of terrorism during the 1940s, Livni was a leading light within the right-wing Likud Party. Then, she heartily supported Sharon's doctrine but in the years since she is thought by some to have adopted a move dovish worldview.
Her husband Naftali Spitzer, however, doesn't agree. Ha'aretz has revealed that he considers his wife right of Benjamin Netanyahu (if such is even possible), which may give her supporters pause for thought.
However unpalatable her nationalist ideology might be for many within this neighborhood, there is a fair and just side to Ms. Livni that occasionally surprises everyone. For instance, in March 2006, she publicly distinguished between terrorism and legitimate combat.
"Somebody who is fighting against Israeli soldiers is an enemy and we will fight back but I believe that this is not under the definition of terrorism if the target is a soldier," she said.
She has also indicated her willingness to relinquish land for the sake of peace and to discuss the broader Arab initiative, first proposed in 2002 at the Arab League Summit held in Beirut.
Notwithstanding, she remains hawkish on Syria, vowing to end the fledgling indirect peace negotiations brokered by Turkey unless Damascus prevents "weapons smuggling" to Hezbollah. But when it comes to Iran's nuclear program, she sends out conflicting messages. Talking tough on occasion, being almost dismissive on others.
Internally, she has long held a reputation of being "Mrs. Clean", a remarkable accolade in the particularly filthy world of Israeli politics.
Tomorrow, we will find out whether Ms. Livni has garnered 40 percent or more of the vote needed to win the race outright or whether she will be forced to face off against Shaul Mofaz in another round.
If she succeeds, she will be Israel's second female prime minister; the first being Golda Meir, an outwardly grandmotherly figure often referred to as "the best man in government" and who famously said Palestinians never existed.
May Israel's second woman in charge be infinitely wiser, compassionate and hungrier for real peace than the first and all her male successors put together. Well, who said hardheaded columnists aren't allowed exaggerated flights of fancy now and again? I can dream...can't I? ([email protected])
