The Indo-US nuclear deal, ratified by the US Congress last week, is a landmark for India. After 34 years, the civil nuclear technology ban imposed by the US after India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 has been lifted, opening the door to full civil nuclear trade between the two countries. It is likely to result in a multi-billion-dollar nuclear industry in India. With demand of energy expected to soar between now and 2025 and the cost of fuels already soaring, the country intends to open between 18 to 20 nuclear power stations over the next 15 years at a cost, on present estimates, of $1.5 billion each.
Critics say that it will be the US that gains because India will buy not only US nuclear know-how but US military hardware and technology as well, binding itself in the process into a special relationship in which it is controlled by American interests. That is a fantasy. First of all, it ignores India’s ability to more than look after its own interests. Secondly, civil nuclear power has been the goal of successive Indian governments in recent years; Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pushed for this deal (at one point it nearly brought down his government) because India wants and needs civil nuclear know-how. Thirdly, while it wants the best, it is not going to make itself dependent on any one supplier. American nuclear power companies such as General Electric and Westinghouse are almost certain to pick up some of the contracts, creating in the process thousands of jobs for Americans; but plenty of other countries with nuclear know-how are going to be knocking on India’s door offering much the same technology at very competitive prices. Only last week, Manmohan Singh was in Paris signing a similar deal with France. Deals are also expected in the next few weeks with other European countries and with Russia.
It is in this wider perspective that the Indo-US deal has to be seen. What has occurred is not a special on-off nuclear tie-up with the US. India is opening out to all the world’s civil nuclear suppliers. It follows the unprecedented exemption from the 45-nation Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) allowing it to acquire nuclear technology despite not having signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. In fact, civil nuclear cooperation between the US and India was agreed three years ago and approved by the US Congress in 2006. Likewise, a draft deal was signed last year when President Putin was in Delhi for Russia to build four nuclear reactors in India. Both deals had to wait for the NSG waiver. Strangely, no one is suggesting that India will come under Russian domination as a result of the Russian deal, although Moscow certainly hopes that India will buy Russian fighter jets. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani either did not understood the crucial importance of the NSG waiver when, two days ago, he demanded Washington agree the same civil nuclear deal as agreed with India. Pakistan has not been given one, or he chose to ignore it. But without a waiver, it is not just Washington that will not provide nuclear know-how. The Europeans will not, nor will neither Russia nor any other nuclear supplier. Moreover, it is not in Washington’s gift to “fix” waivers. If it were, it would mean that it could tell members such as Russia, China, South Africa and Brazil what to do. It cannot. If Pakistan is serious about wanting nuclear technology, then it has to convince more than Washington that Pakistan should, like India, receive a waiver.
