JERUSALEM: Israel’s election has suddenly become too close to call, though hard-liners will have a clear edge in the horse-trading that is sure to follow today’s vote.
Whoever emerges victorious will likely have little to celebrate, with polls pointing toward a fractious coalition government and a period of political paralysis. That could complicate international efforts to create a Palestinian state alongside Israel and pose big challenges to the new US president, who has made peace in the Middle East a top priority.
The race pits former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes giving up land in the name of peace, against Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, a centrist who hopes to become the country’s first woman leader in nearly 40 years. For months, opinion polls have predicted a decisive victory by Netanyahu’s Likud party.
But new polls released over the weekend showed Livni’s Kadima party closing the gap. Neither, however, is expected to get more than 30 seats in the 120-seat Parliament, meaning the winner will have to form a coalition with smaller parties.
Netanyahu seems to be in a far better position to lead the country, since his natural allies in the nationalist right wing of Israeli politics are all polling well. In particular, Netanyahu’s former protégé, Avigdor Lieberman, appears poised to make huge gains on a platform that calls for Arab-Israelis to swear loyalty to the state or lose citizenship.
While Livni could still eke out a victory, it appears mathematically impossible for her to form a coalition without bringing in Lieberman or some other hard-line party. That would hinder her ability to pursue a peace agreement with the Palestinians, as she has promised to do.
“It seems it is going to be decisive, the right wing is probably going to have the majority,” said Avraham Diskin, a Hebrew University political scientist who is the chief statistician for Israel’s Central Election Commission.
The strength of the Israeli right is a reflection of the times. Israel recently wrapped up a three-week war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The campaign came just over two years after a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
These conflicts have generated a fear among Israelis that their country is surrounded by enemies and left a public highly skeptical about the prospects for peace. Livni, who has been the government’s chief negotiator, wants to continue the talks with the Palestinian government of Mahmoud Abbas, which would require a large West Bank withdrawal as part of an agreement. She has repeatedly urged voters to choose “hope” over “fear.”
Netanyahu says any land handed to the Palestinians will be used to launch attacks against Israel. He points to the experience of Gaza, which was overrun by Hamas after Israel unilaterally withdrew from the area.
Instead, Netanyahu says peace talks should be limited to building the Palestinian economy — a position rejected out of hand by the Palestinians and unlikely to win favor with Obama.
“We will not deal with any Israeli government that isn’t fully committed to the peace process and the two-state solution,” said Nabil Abu Rudainah, spokesman for Abbas.
Netanyahu also advocates a hard line against Iran, citing its support for Hamas and its suspected nuclear program. Netanyahu has vowed not to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, though he stops short of saying how he would achieve that. Of the main candidates, Netanyahu seems the most likely to carry out a military strike on Iran. That could also put him at odds with Obama, who favors talking to Tehran.
Although Netanyahu has talked of forming a broad-based government, he has taken great pains to stress his hard-line credentials in the closing days of the campaign — a direct result of Lieberman’s growing popularity.
