When a society is riven by deep political divisions as Thailand at this hour is, it stands not far from the slippery slope toward civil conflict. Indeed, some might argue that with the cancellation of the ASEAN summit in Pattaya yesterday, because of unruly civil protest, it is already coming perilously close to the very brink.
Red-shirted supporters of ousted Premier Thaksin Shinawatra, under the banner of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UFDD) have effectively repeated the tactics used by the yellow-shirted People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), who through widespread civil protest, including ultimately the occupation of Bangkok airport, first forced Thaksin from power in 2006 and the downfall of two successive pro-Thaksin governments. The charismatic Thaksin is charged with corruption and remains in exile, but his supporters, especially among the rural poor, are widely believed to have returned a government in 2006 in a free and fair election. The last three years have seen a convoluted tussle between the political establishment, in particular the army that has historically played a key role in Thai politics and this newly vocal, largely rural community. This includes tens of thousands of country people who have migrated to urban centers in search of work.
Some analysts believe that the monarch King Bhumibol Adulyadej backs the establishment and the military. The yellow worn by anti-Thaksin protesters is associated with royalty. But this is to ignore both the very real respect, bordering on reverence that Thaksin and his supporters actually themselves show toward the king. The monarchy has long exerted a quiet guiding hand in Thai politics. But after 62 years on the throne, King Bhumibol is reportedly ill and apparently has not been able to exert his past influence on generals and politicians.
It is perhaps this lack of a moderating guidance from the palace that has permitted the present profound political fracture to occur. There seem to be two options to avoid civil strife. The first is for the formation of a government of national unity — more easily said than done in such a charged political climate. The second is for the calling of fresh elections, preferably with strict international monitoring, to define clearly the current will of the people. Perhaps both measures could be taken together, with a unity government acting as a caretaker until the election is completed. Neither course is anything but challenging. But it is time for Thai political leaders on both sides of the deep divide to take a serious view on where the current polarization of their country is leading. It is up to them, as responsible politicians, to abandon their negative soapboxes and seek out ways of compromise. Turning their supporters into mobs, capable of seriously disrupting air travel to the country or disgracefully driving away foreign leaders from an important ASEAN summit is not helping anyone. Indeed it has damaged Thailand’s once high international reputation. Politics is rightly defined as being “the art of the possible”. Without compromise, Thai leaders are currently striving for the impossible while driving their country into danger.
Sri Lanka: Crushing victory
The Guardian yesterday commented on Sri Lanka, saying in part:
The conflict in Sri Lanka is ending in a murderous round of shelling. About 100,000 people are trapped on a coastal strip, an area of eight square miles. The Sri Lankan government has declared it a no-fire zone, and bridles at comparisons with Gaza. But as Human Rights Watch said yesterday, that coastal strip has become one of the most dangerous places in the world.
No shortage of charges can be laid at the door of the defeated army of the Tamil Tigers. They have shot civilians attempting to flee; they have used them as human shields; they have used children to dig bunkers, to collect weapons from killed cadres and Sri Lankan soldiers, and to fight. In February the UN Children’s Fund, UNICEF, said that children as young as 14 were being forcibly recruited. But none of this absolves the Sri Lankan government of its responsibility to end the grotesque loss of innocent life. Sri Lanka’s Defense Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa said in February that all persons subject to attack by his armed forces were legitimate LTTE targets. He is only being true to his word.
But his statement goes to the heart of a second major concern. The Sri Lankan Army is not releasing those who manage to flee the fighting. They are being put into camps, where they are not allowed to communicate with the outside world. At Menik Farm, one of the largest, a second line of barbed wire was installed so that outsiders cannot approach. Here, according to one aid worker, the camp is being prepared to receive 400,000 refugees, a figure which appears to indicate that the number of refugees is much bigger than is suggested by the official claims that 60,000 have left the Tamils’ coastal strip and 40,000 are left. Aid agencies are allowed to visit the camps near Vavuniya, but cannot monitor what happens in them, register who is inside them or how many disappear from them. As it is, 25 people a month are disappearing from Vavuniya in what have become known as the “white van abductions”.
