From the mountain heights of Kashmir to the palm-fringed beaches of Kerala, from Nagaland in the remote northeast to the Maharashtra heartland, India will this week throw itself headlong into the world’s largest and most extraordinary election.
Here, in the planet’s biggest, if imperfect, democracy, candidates from 1,055 parties will be seeking the support of more than 714 million registered voters — a number that has jumped by 40 million since the last election in 2004. Across India’s 35 states and “union territories” there will be 800,000 polling stations ready to receive voters, while six million police will be on duty to try to maintain order. Such is the sheer scale of this enterprise that the voting is to be staggered over a month with five separate polling days. The result will be announced in mid-May.
Among some of the leading players in this political carnival are a movie star— turned-politician, whose rallies lure countless thousands of the poor, desperate for him to transform his on-screen Robin Hood heroism into real-life action; a “Dalit Queen”, whose support among so-called Untouchables could carry her to the prime minister’s official residence; a chief minister whose state saw a massacre of Muslims yet who has risen to become a potential leader of his party; and an elegant, Italian-born widow who holds the position as India’s chief power broker. There are wealthy and poor, old and young, high-caste and low, nationalists and those who want to separate from India. There are those who preach peace, and those who promise violence. There are dozens of languages and many different scripts.
But if an Indian election provides a window in the extraordinary diversity of the subcontinent, it should not distract from the fundamental point that this is a contest for power. The centrist Congress party, which heads the current ruling coalition, is battling to fight off a challenge not just from the main opposition, the right-wing Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but also from a third front of communist and left parties and even a fourth front that includes disgruntled former allies. Some analysts believe this election — the 15th since the country won independence in 1947 — is the most open in recent years.
What is clear is that the election is taking place against a backdrop of uncertainty and anxiety for India. While this emerging nation with its middle vision fixed on superpower status has not suffered the same sort of economic downturn as the West, many middle-class professions in the IT and software industry have for the first time faced redundancies and layoffs. At the same time there is mounting concern about the threat of terrorism. Last year’s Mumbai attacks saw more than 160 people killed by militants from Pakistan, and the issue of how to avoid a repeat of such incidents has dominated much public debate. India’s relationship with Pakistan, which has never been warm, but which in recent years had been enjoying something of a thaw, has effectively now reverted to a stand-off. Pundits predict that whichever single party emerges with the most votes, it will be forced to make a coalition to form a government. This time around, there have been few pre-poll alliances with most parties opting to see how they stand in a month’s time. “The real election will start on 16 May,” said the veteran journalist and political analyst M. J. Akbar.
In a region where democracy has often struggled, it is perhaps a compliment to India’s enduring civilian rule that few see radical changes, regardless of whichever of the major parties forms the next government. What the election does promise is terrific political theater. Pull up a chair.
