The mayhem continues — and in more than one-way. Oil demand projections are being revised downward virtually on a regular basis. No one really knows where it will bottom out. It will all depend on how deep the recession might be and how long it might last. Projecting the course the markets will take has always been hazardous and if the events of 2008 teach the soothsayers of the oil industry anything, it must surely be that theirs is a near-impossible task. Oil prices rose further than anyone would have thought possible, to the giddy heights of $147 a barrel on the world’s main futures exchanges on July 11 last year, and then they rather promptly fell even further and even faster.

OPEC seemed powerless, initially, from preventing the run-up in prices, and then in the downward ride on the roller coaster at even more breakneck speed than the preceding ascent. However, as markets continued to plummet, OPEC seems to have reasserted some semblance of the lost control over the crude markets even after announcing a steep output cut. It has definitely succeeded not only in preventing a further decline in prices, but also for pushing the markets into the 50s from the lows of 30s a few months back.

However, there are other variables too in the entire energy equation, much beyond the control of the OPEC, and the producers are definitely weary of them. As the grouping continues to make its biggest output cuts ever recorded, some non-OPEC producers — Brazil, Russia and the US — are pumping more, threatening to send crude back below $50 a barrel as demand continues to feel the heat. This is a cause of serious concern to OPEC producers — and some are already prompting this might compel them to re-look at their current strategy to counter the downturn.

US crude imports from OPEC fell 818,000 barrels a day, or 14 percent in January from a year earlier, a US Department of Energy report said. On the other hand, US imports from Brazil more than doubled to 397,000 and Russia also dramatically increased its exports to the US by almost 10-fold — to 157,000 bpd in January. The trend continued in February and March, too, the report underlined.

Overall deliveries from non-OPEC producers thus rose by 670,000 barrels a day in January. Russia’s overall exports climbed 6.3 percent in February and another 2.2 percent in March, the energy ministry in Moscow announced. Brazilian total exports more than doubled in both February and March, the Brazil’s trade ministry announced.

This all happened while the US crude imports in January fell by 148,000 barrels a day, as the US domestic production also went up by 153,000 bpd, the US Department of Energy figures confirmed.

The United States is the world’s largest crude consumer and all this fits well into its vowed rhetoric of reducing its dependence on the “volatile and the unreliable” Middle East.

Indeed, with non-OPEC producers apparently striving to increase their market share at the expense of OPEC, not everyone seems happy. Non-OPEC producers don’t seem to be cooperating with the OPEC endeavors to stabilize the markets currently.

Russia also lowered export duties this month to $15 a barrel from $15.70 in March to boost exports, the IEA said in its April 10 report. Brazilian production would also rise by 7.2 percent this year to 2.54 million barrels a day, the IEA said.

“They want to capture as much of the US market as they can, and as fast as they can,” Robert Ebel, chairman of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said of the non-OPEC producers. “As long as they can make some money, they will ship their oil here.”

OPEC is visibly disturbed. Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil, the OPEC president until last year, said in March he was disappointed that Russia had not cut production to support prices. In fact there were signals at the last OPEC meeting where Moscow was present as an observer that the world’s second biggest oil producer may also contribute to the overall output cut regimen. That does not seem to be materializing at least in the shorter run. Oil producers have been clamoring for some time now they needed crude prices in a $60 to $75 range to support production of higher-cost resources.

Are we heading back to the heady days of battle among the producers for market share? That’s anybody’s guess. However, in this game all would turn out to be losers, especially those with higher exploration costs. And everyone knows who they are.