The Iraqi security forces appear to have captured a leading Al-Qaeda-allied insurgent in an operation conducted entirely with their own resources. The detaining — if confirmed — of Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi, the head of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq undoubtedly represents a major success for the Nuri Al-Maliki government which was shaken by two days of suicide bombing attacks last week that left over 150 people dead.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Baghdad last week that the attacks demonstrated how desperate the terrorists were becoming in the face of growing successes by Iraqi and US forces. Such reasoning in similar circumstances all too often amounts to weasel words in the face of an unexpected resurgence of violence. However, given that Baghdadi appears to have been arrested just before this latest string of attacks, on this occasion Clinton may be right. This may indeed have been a desperate and despairing response by the men of violence to the loss of one of their top leaders.

The Al-Maliki government has meanwhile been quick to denounce speculation by some US generals that it may be necessary to keep some combat forces in specific areas — Baquba and Mosul perhaps — after this June’s deadline for American troops to pull out of all Iraqi cities in preparation for quitting the country completely by 2011. By even suggesting this, the US commanders are playing into the hands of the insurgents who want nothing more than to prolong the US occupation and thus their own best excuse for existing. The Iraqi security forces may not have the sophisticated weaponry and intelligence capabilities of the Americans, but they are nevertheless now far better equipped than the Americans to defeat the men of violence. This is their own country for which they are fighting and they know better than the Americans who their enemies are in the insurgency.

The death of an innocent passerby on Sunday during an American raid on a house in Kut, in which five suspected terrorists were arrested, has reminded Iraqis of past civilian losses during US operations which the Bush administration used to describe, with little apparent sincerity as “regrettable collateral damage.” The strength of local protest at the US killing of this Kut woman, who the Americans said was in their line of fire, demonstrates that this sort of indiscriminate slaughter is even less acceptable today.

If it is indeed Baghdadi who has been seized by Iraqi troops, then the security forces will rightly feel a greater sense of confidence. It should not, however, be forgotten that almost a year ago, they thought they had seized the Al-Qaeda leader in Iraq, Abu Ayyub Al-Masri, but it turned out, they had only caught a foot soldier. Also Friday's double bombing at Kadhemiya which killed 60 worshippers, occurred despite strict security. Two officers responsible for security have been arrested pending investigations into how the terrorists got through the cordon.

The insurgents are not yet defeated but they are clearly being beaten and it is increasingly Iraqis and Iraqis alone, who are winning.

Lankan govt needs to show restraint

As the war in Lanka draws to a close, there have been reports of Tamil rebels holding civilians as human shields. The Independent in its editorial yesterday wrote about the prospects of peace in the country. Excerpts:

After 26 long years, Sri Lanka’s brutal civil war — which has claimed more than 70,000 lives — is finally coming to an end. The Tamil Tiger rebels have been bottled up in a narrow coastal strip in the northeast. They are militarily exhausted and surrounded. Unsurprisingly, President Mahinda Rajapaksa is keen to bring this brutal conflict to a decisive end.

Yet such a clean conclusion looks increasingly unlikely to be achieved. The Tigers, with their backs to the Indian Ocean, are using some 50,000 Tamil civilians as human shields. On the other side, the Colombo government is under growing international pressure to avoid further civilian casualties.

The statement from the president that the army will no longer use “heavy weapons” in the conflict zone appears to have been intended to appease the visiting United Nations humanitarian chief. With the Tigers clinging to their hostages and the government’s hands tied, the situation is looking like a stalemate.

President Rajapaksa, however, seems unwilling to give up hope of a military solution. There have been reports of a government air raid on a village in the no-fire zone, even after the army released its promise to use only small arms.

Sri Lanka’s Sinhalese majority is in triumphant mood at the plight of the reviled Tigers, but the Colombo government ought to look at the bigger picture. When this conflict is over the Sinhalese will need to live side by side with their Tamil neighbors. The more pain and misery inflicted on the Tamil minority now, the harder that transition will be.

Colombo can destroy the Tigers’ capabilities, but the lesson of Iraq and Afghanistan is that insurgencies do not need sophisticated equipment to be effective. Military restraint and serious negotiation is in Colombo’s best interests.