Is this the year of being terrified? The last six months have been characterized not just by upheaval but by panic and scaremongering. First there was the financial crisis. We’ve had months of scaremongering, of Armageddon headlines, of politicians, economists and journalists scaring the daylights out of us. Though the hardship is real, the crisis has been overdone. The financial crisis is depressing but it is not the Great Depression.
And it’s interesting how just as we were sold doom and gloom, in recent weeks politicians have been trying to peddle us hope and optimism. Barack Obama started “the get some sunshine over here” trend by talking about signs that the recession was beginning to recede. In Britain, Gordon Brown has tried to emulate this but with far less success. Newspapers have followed suit. Clearly there was gloom fatigue and a need to start creating some stories that could inject some confidence into the economic system and convince consumers to get out there and spend some cash.
Then comes Mexican swine flu. The pig industry doesn’t like it being called swine flu, just as the Mexicans resent it being called Mexican flu. Perhaps we could just call it this year’s flu. Once again being terrorized is on the agenda. The worst-case scenario is indeed terrifying. Here are the statistics for the UK alone: Up to half the population could get infected, up to 1.2 million people could be hospitalized and 750,000 could die. These figures come from the British government. They are part of planning for a response to a pandemic should it occur. But they are a worst-case scenario, but bandied about as if they were the most likely scenarios. For a start, we are so frightened of this disease that we forget that most people will make a full recovery. Even in the worst-case scenario, the statistics are for 1,250 fatalities per 100,000 infections, i.e. if you get ill, there is a 1.25 percent chance of dying from the disease and a 98.75 percent chance of making a full recovery. Those most at risk, as in all flus, are those who are elderly or very young and whose immune system is weak.
The pandemic alert is necessary, but alert is the key word, not panic. Steps should naturally be taken to educate and to prevent infections spiraling. The introduction of thermal imaging at entry points to identify and isolate people running a temperature and who may have flu, the stock-piling of anti-viral drugs, the training of medical staff in dealing with flu, the distribution of leaflets and setting up phone lines to deliver accurate information about the disease and, of course, detailed plans for dealing with the worst-case scenarios — all these are part and parcel of a responsible approach to dealing with this potential pandemic.
It is easy to forget that regular seasonal flu kills a million people a year. A sense of proportion is desperately needed. There are far more dangerous diseases making their way around the planet. Tuberculosis, AIDS and malaria will kill many more people this month than flu and will continue to do so even after this pandemic has abated. Though the risk is real and needs to be taken seriously, the most likely scenario is that this flu will turn out to be just like SARS and CJD.
Maybe it is also time that we thought more seriously about the consequences of intensive farming. Some scientists may debate the link between modern farming methods and the mutation of animal viruses into ones that can infect humans but common sense alone predicts that holding tens of thousands of animals in small confined spaces and feeding them an unwholesome diet beefed up with antibiotics and other drugs is hardly a recipe for good health.
And once again, this pandemic will flag up the difference between rich and poor. Those most likely to die are those living in densely populated poor areas with an inadequate health infrastructure. Whereas in developing countries health services have been preparing for such an eventuality for several years. It is sobering to remember the best advice for dealing with the risk of flu. Put a tissue over your mouth if you sneeze and wash your hands often. If the pandemic reaches your neighborhood it may also be a good idea to avoid crowded spaces and, as Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon put it this week, “there is no safer place than your home to avoid being infected with the flu virus.”
Pity the people of Mexico: They are the ones having to deal with this outbreak. As for the rest of us, we should play it safe.
