The Labour government of British Premier Gordon Brown is in deep trouble. At local elections yesterday his party polled its worst-ever percentage of the vote, just 23 percent. Even so he chose yesterday to reshuffle his Cabinet, in the face of resignations by nine senior and junior ministers during a chaotic four days. His government still has a year of office to run, but many observers doubt it will survive that long. More to the point, a growing number of his own MPs have concluded a general election, whenever it occurs, cannot be won with Brown at Labour’s head. For the moment the premier is protected by a complex party procedure for unseating a leader. However, if Labour’s disastrous performance in the local elections is mirrored on Monday morning when the UK’s European parliamentary election votes have been counted, even his brand new Cabinet line-up, which actually contains many old faces, may not be enough of a bulwark against an even higher tide of protest among socialists.
What is interesting about these local election results is the performance of the two main opposition parities, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Each has won seats from Labour and the Conservatives have taken two local authorities from the Liberal Democrats. But the Conservative share of the overall vote has fallen sharply while that of the Liberal Democrats has only risen slightly. It is significant that the Liberal Democrats have so far been least hit of the three main parties in the MP expenses scandals. Labour malpractice has been in the main sordid — claiming, for instance, for mortgages that no longer existed, while Conservative malfeasance has often been spectacular to the extent of one MP putting in the bill for cleaning out his castle’s moat. The upshot is that voters are deeply disenchanted with all politicians, as evidenced by a further drop in the numbers who turned out Thursday.
While English elections are held under the first-past-the-post system, the European contest uses proportional representation. Therefore, tomorrow’s EU count of UK votes could produce a strong showing for minority parties, including the Greens, and the anti-EU UK Independence Party. If the main parties do lose out significantly in the race for the 72 seats in the European Parliament, the heat will not only be increased on Premier Brown but on the whole UK political establishment. It will indeed demonstrate the degree of contempt in which mainstream politicians are held by the average British voter.
A general election if held in the near future could, therefore, produce an alarming political vacuum. There are, of course, politicians of considerable integrity in Britain, but it is hard to spot them amid the flames of public anger at the self-serving system allowances legislators voted themselves, in large measure to compensate for transparent pay rises that they feared to support in Parliament. As the British government wriggles on a barbed hook of its own making, there seems only one certainty — that after the next general election, whenever it comes, Gordon Brown will not still be premier.
Obama in Cairo: A double new start
Both Arabs and Israelis would make a historic error if they allow Obama’s superb rhetoric to sink and become a footnote in their wrangling, said Haaretz in an editorial yesterday. Excerpts:
The extraordinary speech by the US president in Cairo was meant, in his words, “to seek a new beginning” between the United States and Islam. Obama does not consider some more equal than others. The right of Israel to exist as an independent and sovereign state does not supersede that of the Palestinians. The suffering and humiliation of the Palestinians under occupation are unacceptable, and therefore they must be granted human and political rights; no less unacceptable is the condition of Israeli citizens who live under the threat of rockets. And mostly, the settlements are an illegal creation, irrespective of whether they are called outposts or communities. It is not merely a matter of passive facts on the ground, but a practical obstacle to peace.
Obama does not free any side of responsibility, including his own administration. The assignment of roles is clear, and based on the road map and the Arab Peace Initiative. The Palestinians must combat terrorism and establish a responsible government; Israel must cease settlement activity and recognize the rights of Palestinians; the Arab countries must recognize Israel without waiting for a resolution of the conflict; and the American administration must invest every effort in order to bring all these sides together.
There were concerns in Israel’s government about the address, and also among the settlers. Many in the public would like to consider the speech mere lip service to the Arab and Muslim countries, at the expense of Israel.
On the other hand, there will be many in the Arab and Muslim side who will celebrate a victory of their “righteousness” over Israel’s, and consider the speech an achievement and a strategic change in the direction that the American iceberg is taking.
