Now that he is Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri has a chance to silence his critics and prove that he is more than Rafik Hariri’s son.
Although Saad Hariri and his March 14 alliance fended off a challenge from Hezbollah and its allies in parliamentary elections earlier this month, lost in the jubilation among the supporters of Hariri was the fact that the opposition actually and factually won the popular vote. Because of the distribution of seats based on electoral district, it can be unequivocally stated that the majority of Lebanese did not vote for the March 14 group. While this does not change the outcome of the contest it is certainly not insignificant.
Hariri must now form a Cabinet from the country’s polarized political factions. He seeks to form a national unity government and will begin consultations with all parliamentary blocs. Any unity government will almost certainly include members of Hezbollah and its supporters. One particular stumbling block for the new prime minister could be the issue of Hezbollah’s arms. The group wants to protect its militia, which is more powerful than Lebanon’s army, and it is demanding veto power over major government decisions. This has been resisted by Hariri, but when he met the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah before his nomination by Parliament, the two men vowed to work together.
Hezbollah’s arms will not be an issue discussed in public debates in the post-election era. The issue, which was the main theme in the electoral campaign, will probably be addressed only within the framework of national dialogue and as part of the defense strategy for Lebanon. Hezbollah is not overly concerned about its weapons but to remain so, it will keep an eye on and in fact involve itself in the political choices that are to be made in the coming period by the new prime minister. Naturally it wants the creation of a national bloc that does not confront the resistance.
At the same time it appears that the heavyweights in March 14, like Hariri and Walid Jumblatt, have become more conciliatory, never forgetting Hezbollah’s overrunning of Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut last year that ultimately forced the government’s hand. Hezbollah’s ensuing veto power ensured a year of relative calm but virtually paralyzed the government.
The weeks and months ahead will see intense deliberations and negotiations between the two camps as a Cabinet and government are formed. At issue will be whether the opposition’s “one-third plus one” veto power in the Cabinet as outlined in the Doha Accords will be honored, the matter of Hezbollah’s arms, and what new reforms, if any, the government will adopt. The only platform March 14 seemed to run on was that it was not March 8.
Lebanon’s elections, albeit changing the status quo ante very little, were a lively exercise in democracy in a hotly contested, yet fair vote. An important component of any democracy, however, is the presence of a vigorous and engaged opposition — one able to keep the ruling majority accountable and answerable for their actions. Of that, Lebanon is assured.
On his part, Hariri has to prove he is capable of prudent political thinking of his own making on the domestic front.
