Japanese voters look set to hand the opposition Democratic Party a historic victory in an election next month, but decades of disillusionment with politics means many have little hope of real change.
Ironically, those low expectations that the Democrats can easily solve a raft of problems from a recession-hit economy to creaking pension and health care systems could well help the party overcome early obstacles to governing and stay in power.
“Of course they are inexperienced, so there will be problems even in the first 100 days,” said Yasunori Sone, a political science professor at Keio University.
“It’s better if expectations are not too high. Then the Democrats will be fine as long as they implement their policies incrementally.” If so, a change of government would not only boost chances of ending a political stalemate created when the opposition won control of Parliament’s upper house in 2007, but provide welcome policy stability for investors in Japan’s financial markets.
The business-friendly Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has ruled for all but 10 months since its founding in 1955, but many administrations have been short-lived and Japan has had three premiers since maverick reformist Junichiro Koizumi’s rare five-year term ended in 2006.
“What you care about as an investor is consistency,” said Jesper Koll, CEO of investment adviser Tantallon Research Japan. “You want stability ... You want clear decisions.” Contemplating the possibility of a stable Democratic Party government might seem a bit premature when an election has yet to be formally called and the expected date of Aug. 30 is seven weeks away.
Still, polls show the party, an amalgam of former LDP members, ex-socialists and younger conservatives, is well placed to defeat the LDP.
Support for the Democrats seems a far cry from the “Yes, We Can” exuberance of Barack Obama’s campaign in the United States.
“I don’t think anything will change no matter who is in power,” said sports instructor Kotaro Watanabe, 34, shortly before the ruling party suffered a huge defeat in a weekend Tokyo poll. “But it would be better to give change a chance.” To be sure, a Democratic government would face many challenges. First, Democratic Party leader Yukio Hatoyama will have to decide his Cabinet line-up and other key personnel posts, a process complicated by the need to form a coalition with small allies on the left and the right.
Even if the Democrats win a majority in the lower house, they need the cooperation of the tiny Social Democrats and the conservative People’s New Party to control the upper chamber.
“They need to prepare for this, but they don’t seem to be doing so,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at The Tokyo Foundation, a think tank.
“They need to at least decide on the finance and foreign ministers and the chief Cabinet secretary.” The Democrats must also quickly work out a way to get along with powerful government bureaucrats wary of a new administration.
The party has made its promise to pry policy control from bureaucrats to cut waste and refocus spending the core of their platform. But to accomplish policy goals, they will help from some of those very elite government officials.
Some analysts say the party’s best bet is to ally with powerful mandarins at the Finance Ministry who share a desire to cut waste as a way to rein in Japan’s bulging public debt, the worst among advanced countries and on track to reach 170 percent of GDP.
“The big question is, who are their allies?” Koll said.
“It’s simple if they can turn the Finance Ministry into an ally in attacking wasteful spending.” A new government’s ability to govern would face its first real test in drafting the budget for the year from April 2010.
The Democrats have pledged to pay more heed to the rights of consumers and workers and to boost household disposable income to increase personal consumption and bolster economic growth.
They are likely to quickly implement some pledges, such as providing allowances to families with children and abolishing a gasoline surcharge, in order to please voters
