Hillary Clinton’s five-day visit to India which began on Friday is arguably the most important she has yet undertaken as President Barack Obama’s secretary of state. Washington needs closer relations with the emerging economic superpower, not least for its assistance in the fight against terror. However, there is a range of legacy issues which needs to be ironed out.
Washington’s long-standing concerns focus on climate change, a new world trade treaty and nuclear non-proliferation. This last, is of less concern to the Americans because though New Delhi continues to refuse to sign the nuclear nonproliferation treaty (NPT) believing it freezes the nuclear weapons status quo rather than promoting the scrapping of these arsenals, the Bush administration had the unusual wisdom to sign a landmark civilian nuclear agreement. Though Obama may hope at some later point to persuade both India and Pakistan to ink the NPT, the issues of the new world trade order and the capping greenhouse gas emissions, remain.
India, with China, regards both as discriminatory. China with its far more extensive industrialization is being forced to address local environmental degradation because of the economic and human costs of widespread pollution. India by contrast with its rapid growth in service sector industries is less pressed here, though rapid urban growth in showcase cities is leading to environmental challenges such as falling water tables and shortages and burgeoning power demand.
But both New Delhi and Beijing suspect that agreeing caps on their carbon emissions will risk undermining their economic growth. Likewise the still stalled Doha Round of World Trade Organization talks is seen by India and China as an economic threat.
The problem for Hillary Clinton as she talks to the strongly re-elected government of Manmohan Singh is that Washington’s fight against terror is an even more urgent matter. NATO is struggling in Afghanistan and Pakistan is battling against widespread Al-Qaeda-inspired insurgency which still threatens government control of the country. India’s dominant regional position is key to everything that Obama is trying to achieve in defeating the Taleban and restoring stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The Mumbai bombings proved that fanatics in Pakistan are prepared to do whatever they can to destroy the still delicate process of rapprochement between New Delhi and Islamabad. The public fury post-Mumbai and its attempted exploitation by Hindu extremists demonstrated how tough a job India’s leaders have to calm opinion and stick to a statesman-like course. But Washington knows that without India’s support, as well as patience, the conflict to the West could spiral out of control. That Premier Singh recognizes India’s interests would also be threatened by a triumphant Taleban is undoubted. But he is too wise a politician merely to fall in behind Obama and what has been seen so far in Delhi as his excessive focus on Pakistan and Afghanistan. Clinton’s job is to persuade the Indian government that its own concerns are not being neglected. She will probably have to offer more than assurances for the US administration to be taken at its word.
