The Great Game, as anyone from the subcontinent, Iran or Central Asia and with a sense of history can explain, was the rivalry in Central Asia in the 19th century between the British and Russian empires of which they were the victims — the Russians pushing down from the north, swallowing great swaths of the region and the British in India intent of sabotaging them and extending their own influence. Today, there are many in the region and beyond who are convinced that a new Great Game is in play, this time between the Russians and the Americans. If so, then Thursday’s summit in the capital of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, involving the presidents of Russia, Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as of Tajikistan itself, must be seen as a victory for Moscow. This is its first serious foray into the region since being forced out of Afghanistan 20 years ago.
The reality, however, is far more complex. While no one could seriously deny that the Americans were busy playing the Great Game against the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s or that the Russians today want to exercise greater political influence in the region, the fact is that both powers are now on the same side. If anything at Thursday’s summit, the US could be said to have been present in spirit. It firmly supports the summit’s prime objective — stability in the region and the destruction of militants in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan.
The extent to which the Russians and the Americans are prepared to collaborate daily becomes more evident. Last month saw the military agreement, signed while President Barack Obama was in Moscow, allowing the US to ship military material to Afghanistan via southern Russia.
This followed Tajikistan’s deal with the US to tranship nonmilitary supplies to Afghanistan. The agreement would have been impossible without Moscow’s approval; it has been able to pull strings in Dushanbe ever since using its troops to rescue the government there during the country’s 1992-97 civil war. In the light of these two deals, it would not be surprising if neighboring Kyrgyzstan, another post-Soviet state firmly in Moscow’s backyard, now reverses its February decision to shut down the US military supply base at Manas. It has to close by the end of September. Moscow’s hand was very much seen in the February announcement as a warning shot to the new Obama administration that, in future, it must take Russia into account in the region. It now does.
Nor would it be surprising if the Tajikistan deal goes further than presently described. The term “nonmilitary” can so often have indistinct boundaries — and there are going to be no independent observers to monitor what flies in and out. The other reason for a very broad interpretation of it is Wednesday’s pledge in Dushanbe by Tajikistani President Emomali Rakhmon and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to fight the militants together. Tajikistan is now fully part of an anti-terrorist alliance not just with Pakistan, but also with Afghanistan, Russia and the US. For its own security it wants the Taleban crushed in Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is not going to do anything that prevents that from happening. Thursday’s summit may have been Russia’s debut as a regional power broker, but the US was very much the ghost at the party. The Great Game may still exist but the struggle is not between Washington and Moscow.
