Japan’s opposition Democratic Party will seek to keep bitter wartime memories from fraying ties with Asian neighbors if it takes power in this month’s election, but the ghosts of the past are unlikely to be easily laid to rest.
And while tight economic ties between Japan and China make getting along essential, any new government in Tokyo faces the tough challenge of responding to Beijing’s rising global clout.
The opposition, which polls show has a good shot at ousting the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the Aug. 30 election, has put priority on building mutual trust with Asian countries such as China and South Korea, often marred by the legacy of Japan’s past militarism.
Japan’s ties with China and South Korea chilled markedly during then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s 2001-2006 tenure when his visits to Yasukuni shrine outraged Beijing and Seoul, which see the Shinto shrine as a symbol of Japan’s past militarism.
But the need to put Sino-Japanese relations back on track given vital economic links prompted all three of Koizumi’s successors, including nationalist Shinzo Abe and incumbent Taro Aso, to refrain from paying respects at the controversial shrine.
Trade between China and Japan grew to $266.4 billion in 2008, a rise of 12.5 percent on 2007, making China Japan’s top two-way trade partner. Japan and China are the world’s second and third largest economies, respectively.
China was also the second biggest destination for Japanese exports in 2008, after the United States.
“If the Democrats take power, strengthening diplomacy toward Asia will be a major pillar of their foreign policy, so naturally they will handle the history problem carefully,” Takahara said.
Caution will indeed be vital given not only deep-seated resentment among the public in China and South Korea, but also a lack of agreement inside Japan about why the country went to war.
“The problem is that there is not a consensus in Japan about history in Asia. Was it pan-Asian liberation or a 15-year bloody rampage? The debate isn’t resolved,” said Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asia studies at Temple University’s Japan campus.
Democratic Party Secretary-General Katsuya Okada is among those who believe Japan must come to grips with its past.
“First, Japan itself must properly assess the fact that it embarked on that wretched, foolish war,” he told Reuters in a recent interview. “In that sense, our position is quite different from that of successive LDP governments, including Koizumi’s.”
But any attempt by the Democrats to take positive steps toward reconciliation over the past risks inflaming Japanese nationalists, in turn outraging many in China and South Korea.
Among those who could be expected to lash out is the right-wing of the LDP, so far restrained by being in power.
“I’m not convinced that history as an issue will fade,” Kingston said. “Power imposed certain constraints on the LDP and without that, we could see the LDP take the gloves off.”
Beyond the burden of the past loom present rivalries as Japan struggles to engineer economic growth and maintain its say in global affairs despite an aging, shrinking population, even as China’s economic and diplomatic clout grows.
That challenge remains, no matter who takes power in Tokyo.
“There is still structural tension between China and Japan.
China is a rising power and Japan has its own interests, to make sure it is not marginalized,” Singapore’s Lam said.
“I don’t think it is going to change fundamentally just because the DPJ takes over.”
