HUNGRY for power after 11 years in opposition, Germany’s Free Democrats (FDP) may be a catalyst for economic and fiscal reform if they forge a coalition with Angela Merkel’s conservatives after September’s election.
Tax and spending cuts, new rules to enable firms to lay off workers more easily and a rolling back of the German state are top priorities for the FDP, the preferred partner for Chancellor Merkel if she is re-elected. Polls show Merkel’s conservatives and the FDP, under the leadership of Guido Westerwelle, could muster enough support to seal a partnership and put an end to Germany’s “grand coalition” between conservatives and Social Democrats (SPD)
“A conservative-FDP government would mean a policy shift to the right and a polarization of the political landscape,” said Dietmar Herz, politics professor at Erfurt University.
Despite advocating free markets and limited government for decades, the FDP has been the biggest political winner of a financial crisis that many blame on lax regulation and has stolen conservatives angry at Merkel’s compromises with the SPD. A force on the German political stage since World War II, the FDP has spent longer in government than any other party. Often playing the role of kingmaker, it has ruled with both conservatives and the SPD and supplied three foreign ministers, including Hans-Dietrich Genscher who steered Germany for almost two decades through the Cold War to reunification.
The party lost many supporters on the left after a momentous decision in 1982 to bring down Helmut Schmidt’s SPD government and switch, mid-term, to Helmut Kohl’s conservatives after a row over social welfare cuts. The SPD has never forgiven the FDP. It is currently in power in five of Germany’s biggest states, which make up nearly two thirds of the population.
Westerwelle, a 47-year-old lawyer, who has criticized Merkel for shifting left in her grand coalition, will have a long wish list if he ends up in coalition talks with Merkel. Tax relief would be at the very top. “Taxes are crucial for the FDP. They’ll insist on relief for the middle classes and on changing the tax system,” said Richard Stoess, politics professor at the Free University.
Despite Westerwelle’s vow to cut spending in 400 different areas, critics say his promise of 35 billion euros ($50.12 billion) in tax reductions is unaffordable given a ballooning budget deficit. Other reforms may include changes to health funding and extending the working lives of some nuclear plants due to close.
But the FDP, which tends to control the foreign, economy and justice ministries when in government, will find it tough to deliver on promises to loosen workers’ job protection laws, a move Merkel has dropped from her party program.
The FDP could face some headaches. The SPD, its popularity currently at rock bottom, could recover when freed of the strains of government. The Greens, their popularity riding high, and the left party could also act as a brake, said Herz.
Merkel, to gain traction, could threaten to form a second alliance with the SPD, though it is no secret the current grand coalition has been under strain since its conception. Tempers between the conservatives, especially Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU), and the FDP are already frayed.
In a sign of possible tensions to come, CSU leader Horst Seehofer launched an unusally personal attack on Westerwelle earlier this month, calling him “little Mr. Sensitive” in an apparent allusion to his alleged homosexuality.
“If Mr. Westerwelle expects a neoliberal love-in after the election, then he’ll feel the CSU’s spirit of resistance”, Seehofer warned.
While still a niche party with some 70,000 members vying with the Greens to be Germany’s third biggest force, the FDP has broadened its appeal since 2001 under Westerwelle’s leadership.
Analysts say he has won respect for repositioning it as a serious party after a light-hearted election campaign in 2002 aimed at young voters failed to deliver his goal of 18 percent.
Voters remember him for wearing shoes with “18” on the soles. Despite a lack of experience in government, Westerwelle is tipped to become foreign minister if he ends up sharing power with Merkel. A knack, unusual in Germany, for delivering pithy soundbites could stand him in good stead. However, a tendency to punch the air with his fists and raise his voice has made him too excitable for many Germans and raised questions about whether he can win over fellow Cabinet members in any future government.
“Westerwelle gives the impression of being more passionate about liberal policies” than Merkel, said media consultant Richard Schuetze. “But he suffers from being vain, which makes him a little too loud and shrill. He dramatizes things a little too much to be taken seriously by the public.”
