THE surprise announcement Monday night that Turkey and Armenia have agreed to open diplomatic relations and reopen a border between them that has been closed since 1927, except for a brief period ending in 1993, is to be welcomed, even though the finalization of the two protocols will be fraught with difficulties.

However, if Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan can see this agreement through, it will transform both Turkey’s international standing and bring stability to the southern Caucasus. But the “if” is a big one. The protocols require parliamentary ratification and are opposed by nationalists in both Turkey and Armenia. Economically Armenia has more to gain. Since independence was restored in 1991, it has struggled in the face of Russian interference, financial ineptitude and corruption. With a falling birth rate, its 3,250,000 inhabitants have survived in no small measure on investment and remittances from the eight million Armenians who live outside the country.

Armenia’s plight was worsened following the successful uprising of majority ethnic Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave of Azerbaijan. Turkey re-closed the border and landlocked Armenia struggled, with a major part of its trade having to pass expensively through its neighbor Georgia. Until Monday’s agreements Ankara had insisted on the return of the enclave to Azeri rule before negotiations could be concluded. Since Turkey expects to benefit substantially from the planned Nabucco pipeline that will pass across it taking Azeri gas to Europe, it seems unthinkable that the protocols with Armenia have been made in isolation. Diplomatic sources indicated Wednesday night that the Minsk Group established in 1992, and co-chaired by Russia, the United States and France might be on the verge of a settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, possibly involving some level of autonomy for the enclave in return for Armenian recognition of Azeri sovereignty.

It would, however, be surprising if the Kremlin is backing a deal running counter to its own interests. Facilitating the Nabucco project that will give Europe an alternative to Russian gas, Gazprom is currently offering to pipe Azeri gas to Baku’s new European customers via its own pipeline network. It may be, however, that Russia is tempted by the longer view that a stable and prosperous southern Caucasus will assist it as it grapples with growing Muslim unrest in the north.

Whatever the outcome, providing its nationalist right-wing politicians do not make an ugly spectacle of themselves, Erdogan’s government is likely to emerge with considerable credit for grasping such a difficult political nettle as Armenia. The UN, the EU, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the United States all want to see a normalization in Turco-Armenian relations. Starting with President Abdullah Gul’s visit last year to Yerevan to watch Turkey play Armenia in a World Cup qualifier, it is Ankara that has been making the running — and taking the political risks. If only past Turkish governments had demonstrated equal wisdom over the vexed issue of Northern Cyprus. But maybe the Armenian talks now presage new movement on Cyprus as well.

Japan’s new rulers

THE election upset in Japan is a potentially positive development, said Los Angeles Times in an editorial on Tuesday. Excerpts:

How do you say, "throw the bums out" in Japanese? That's what Japanese voters did on Sunday, booting the Liberal Democratic Party that has ruled almost continuously for more than half a century and leaves now with the world's second-largest economy in sorry shape. The newly elected Democratic Party of Japan is an eclectic mix of leftists and defectors from the ruling party. Its ability to run the country is untested, and its leaders have yet to explain how to pay for their populist campaign promises.

Nevertheless, the election upset is a potentially positive development. A one-party state is bound to grow stale; competition is as important in politics as it is in business.

The outgoing Liberal Democratic Party helped turn Japan from a post-World War II wreck into a global powerhouse. In league with industry and a powerful government bureaucracy, the ruling party oversaw decades of growth that offered its citizens lifelong jobs with housing and health care.

But that system has been unraveling since the Japanese economy collapsed in the 1990s. Now, government scandals, recession, unemployment and an aging population's deep anxiety about the future have prompted voters who normally value stability to reject the known and embrace the promise of change.

Although the Democratic Party has never held power, key members come from the political elite, starting with leader Yukio Hatoyama, who is expected to be named prime minister. His grandfather is a founder of the just-defeated Liberal Democratic Party, and Hatoyama himself was a legislator.

Hatoyama has said that Japan must strengthen its economic and security ties with East Asia. Americans should not be alarmed. China is Japan's largest trading partner, and the countries share a neighborhood. Such integration can help Japan's economic recovery without harming its ties to the US. A healthy Japanese economy is in everyone's interest.