It almost seems a given that in Russia’s 2012 presidential election, former President Vladimir Putin, now the prime minister, will run again for the job and almost certainly win it. Under his successor, Dmitry Medvedev, the presidential term has been extended from four to six years, though the limit of two consecutive terms remains. Thus in three years time, could we be seeing another 12 years of President Putin?
Yet it may not be quite that simple. There have recently been indications from Medvedev’s aides that the president may stand for his own second term. Does this suggest the man everyone assumed had been hand-picked by Putin to keep the presidency warm for him, is thinking of cutting out on his own? Until the last month, Medvedev’s incumbency had been regularly overshadowed by the doings of his prime minister. He had confined his pronouncements to generalities such as Russia’s new place in the world, the blight of alcoholism on the economy and the continuing abysmal productivity of Russian workers, in part due to their excessive drinking. It was Prime Minister Putin who had always made the running on the big issues and Putin whose life was chronicled by a now largely obedient press. The pictures of a bare-chested Putin riding a horse on his camping holiday or overwhelming opponents of the judo mat were clearly designed to promote him as Russia’s real strongman.
Medvedev, by contrast, has always managed to look awkward, even sometime gauche, despite his expensive suits. But in initiating a high-level inquiry last month into alleged inefficiencies and corruption within huge state sector companies, some renationalized under Putin’s presidency, Medvedev moved onto some real political ground, which could potentially challenge his prime minister. It is reported that one of the first companies being looked at by the Russian prosecutor-general is Russian Technologies whose boss, Sergei Chemezov is a close political ally of the prime minister. This business is one of a raft of enterprises, including banks and other financial institutions as well as the nuclear agency Rosatom, which during the Putin presidency all had access to state funds on an unaccountable basis.
The emerging rival parties even have names. The president’s St. Petersburg-based supporters, many of them lawyers and professors, are known as the “civiliki” whereas Putin’s far larger and probably more threatening followers are, like Putin himself, former KGB officers who are called the “siloviki”.
Is Medvedev merely looking to reform the preponderant state sector or does he want to break it up? If the latter, is he formulating a serious challenge to Putin, not just for the presidency on 2012 but for the real leadership of Russia? If so he will need to emerge far more clearly from his prime minister’s shadow and assert himself. At the moment the majority of Russians, who admire political strongmen, would vote for Putin.
Or is this, in fact, all smoke and mirrors, to make it seem Putin will have a semi-credible challenger to defeat when he makes his next run at Russia’s top job?
