Radovan Karadic, the infamous Serb leader during the 1992-95 Bosnian war, is to boycott his trial in The Hague. The tactic will not work. Whether in court or not, he will be tried on charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity, including complicity in the massacre of 8,000 Muslims in Srebrenica in 1995. Nearly 15 years on, it may be justice delayed, but it will be justice nonetheless — although the fact that he still has admirers in the Serbian part of Bosnia, the Republika Srpska, and that his military partner in crime, Ratko Mladic remains at liberty all these years, protected as he is by people with influence in the Serbian ministate, diminishes it considerably.
Of much greater importance is the political crisis in Bosnia. It threatens to trigger a new conflict.
The Dayton agreement, which put an end to the war, has passed its sell-by date. It was a necessary quick fix to end fighting in 1995 but it is no basis for a permanent solution. With considerable power in the hands of the high commissioner, an EU appointee, the country is not independent. Meanwhile, central institutions are weak, the Republika Srpska acts as if it had nothing to do with the rest of the country, and the Croats in the Muslim-Croat region, feeling that they got the worst of the Dayton deal, are increasingly resentful. There is political paralysis.
The US and the EU are trying to move the situation forward, and have been negotiating with all the parties, in part to make Bosnia a normal functioning state like any other, in part so that it can join the EU and NATO. Ironically, their efforts have exacerbated the problem. They want far more power transferred to the center. The Muslims and Croats support this — the latter who see it as a means of ensuring that no one group dominates politically — but the Serbs are adamantly opposed. They always wanted out of Bosnia and to join with Serbia proper; now they are using the talks to bring matters to a head. They threaten a referendum on secession, which would be won by a landslide. The consequences are frightening. There would be little the international community could do about it — neither the US nor the EU would dare refuse to recognize such a move if made through the ballot box. That could trigger conflict within the Muslim-Croat federation. The Croats would want out too. But there are no clear territorial divide in the federation — this area Muslim, that area Croat. There could soon be violence.
Other than leaving things as they are, it is difficult to see what can be done to prevent the descent into fresh conflict. But is the status quo any longer an option? The Serbs appear determined on their referendum.
This looks like a slow motion picture of a train crashing. The only hope lies with the EU. Most Bosnians — Serb, Muslim and Croat — would like to be part of it. If a special status could be devised, perhaps associate membership along with massive investment, it might be enough to avoid the inevitable crash. It would be unique, but then Bosnia is in reality an EU protectorate — and that is unique.
