ON the face of it, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has acted with admirable decisiveness in the wake of the slaying of 57 people, allegedly by members of the Ampatuan clan in pre-electoral violence against their rivals in Mindanao. There were fears that because the Ampatuans were close supporters of the president, the investigation of the crime might be fudged and one more allegation of at best, weakness and at worst collusion could be laid at the president’s door.
Yet senior members of the accused Ampatuan family, including its head, Andal Ampatuan Sr., governor of Maguindanao, were quickly arrested. The administration also declared martial law and replaced the entire local police force with officers from other parts of the country who were unlikely to show the Ampatuans any favors. The military was directed to disarm the clan’s private army. Bombers have been flying over its heartland while helicopters have dropped leaflets ordering the militiamen to disarm.
Back in Manila some legislators have been uneasy at the suspension of civil rights. But the real concern arises from the fact that the administration is starting to treat the behavior of the Ampatuan clan as a rebellion, rather than as a sordid crime on mass murder. This matters because as a member of the country’s constitutional commission has warned, if the Ampatuans are found guilty of rebellion, rather than murder, then they could in fact be pardoned by Arroyo.
There are, however, other important straws in the wind. Malaysia which has been working doggedly on a peace deal between Manila and the Muslim rebels of the MILF on Mindanao has announced a new breakthrough in negotiations. On the cards is a fresh deal to replace that thrown out by the Supreme Court last year, mainly on the grounds that the autonomy to be granted in the rebel region infringed the rights of the non-Muslim population.
If the new agreement is in fact inked next April as the Malaysians are hoping, the balance of power in Mindanao will change radically. No longer will the government need clans such as the Ampatuans to run heavily armed private armies as a counter to the rebels. Indeed if peace comes at last to the island after 12 years of bloody conflict, the opportunity to exploit oil and gas reserves could transform the local economy. For Manila, the issue ought then to be ensuring that, as in so many other areas of the Philippines, economic power and benefits do not go exclusively to the ruling elite.
But between now and then, there is the question of the massacre apparently carried out on the orders of one family in that privileged elite, which still dominates power and wealth nationwide. Will Arroyo have the wisdom and strength to strike a first blow for the fundamental change the Philippines so badly needs? Or will the Maguindanao massacre turn out to be yet another missed opportunity? And if it does, how many more chances are the country’s rulers likely to be given by a long-suffering but increasingly angry citizenry?
