It is the stuff of science fiction but it is nevertheless true. In 19 years time, an asteroid named Apophis, 320 meters in diameter, will come perilously close to the Earth. If it actually struck us, it could cause devastation on an unimaginable scale. The Russians, therefore, propose intercepting and diverting the asteroid before it reaches the Earth. Anatoly Perminov, the head of Russia’s Federal Space Agency Roscosmos has said it was worth spending hundreds of millions of dollars on this extraordinary project rather than take the risk of an impact.
Russia has reason to know the danger of asteroids. In 1908, in what became known as the Tunguska event, an asteroid or comet broke up between three and six miles above Siberia. Some 80 million trees over a distance of 830 square miles were flattened. There is, however, some dispute about the real risk of Apophis striking the Earth.
It is calculated it could be passing at a distance of 18,000 miles, which in planetary terms is no distance at all, especially considering the Earth’s circumference is just 25,000 miles. The slightest deviation in its trajectory could bring about impact.
American scientists at NASA originally predicted a one-in-45,000 chance of Apophis hitting us. Last October, these odds were raised to one-in-250,000. Perminov clearly still regards the risk as too great to ignore.
Now while there have always been cogent arguments against the considerable financial outlays a growing number of countries has made on space exploration — most recently China and India -— at a time when billions of people, including some of their own citizens, live way below the poverty line, the case for acting on Apophis is different. It is now established that in prehistory asteroid or comet strikes had a profound effect on life on Earth, very probably wiping out the dinosaurs as a result of catastrophic impact-induced climate change.
At some point in the future, there will be a collision with another planetary body. Then there could be no Earth on which people can even starve. Apophis does not pose that level of threat. Nevertheless, if it does fall to Earth, the damage and loss of life could be substantial.
Thus for two reasons there seems a strong case for trying to keep it further away from our planet. The first is that this intervention will be a priceless lesson in preparation for the time when a truly catastrophic strike is otherwise inevitable. More importantly, the Russians believe they cannot handle Apophis by themselves. This fantastic mission is best achieved by the cooperation of every space power, spreading not just the financial but also the technological burden.
Here is the chance for leading nations to work together in a crucial cause. The question is whether they will be willing to share their know-how in the spirit of the Russian, US, Japanese, EU, Canadian and Brazilian International Space Station, from which, however, China is unfortunately excluded by Washington. Will chauvinism continue to undermine internationalism or could Apophis signal a change to Earth-bound rivalries?
