- Sentiments rule the crude market - most now concede.
- In earlier times the arrest of 100 plus terrorists planning attacks on the oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, virtually the global gas station, would have sent shivers down the spine throughout the energy world.
When last Wednesday, Saudi Arabia announced the arrest of 100 plus terrorists - planning to target the energy infrastructure of the Kingdom - the lifeline of the global economy - interestingly, the markets almost shrugged that off. This was surely unusual.
In reality, and in sharp contrast to previous episodes, oil prices dropped on the day - indicating two major changes in the global energy dynamics - especially when compared to the recent past.
The energy world now seemed more concerned with the weakening fundamentals in the market. Growing US inventory, the strengthening dollar, the emerging economic crisis in Greece and the gathering thunder on the global economic horizon - impacted the energy world more than the announcement in Riyadh that the authorities have successfully thwarted another attempt on the Saudi energy infrastructure. This was a real vote of confidence on the Saudi continued capacity to ensure stability of supplies, thumbs up by the markets to the capability of the Saudi security apparatus in handling the situation. This also underlined one important aspect of the entire equation - thwarting any such bid on Saudi energy infrastructure was more of a norm than an exception. And if history is indication, if Saudi Arabia has successfully - and rather jealously - protected its energy assets in past, most now felt, it would continue to do so in future too. And market sentiments depicted so!
And this was despite the fact that the failed attempt was not an attempt in isolation. It is a continuation of the recently emerging pattern, within the extremist elements. The Wednesday's announcement came hard on the heels of a US Navy warning only a few days earlier on Monday that suicide attacks were possible on ships off Yemen in the Red Sea, the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden.
In earlier indications of the new threat perceptions, Singapore's navy warned March 3 that terrorists planned to attack oil tankers in the choke point Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. The 600-mile waterway, the shortest route between the Gulf and the Pacific, is a vital energy corridor to Asia, particularly energy-hungry China.
In early February, Said Al-Shihri, deputy leader of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, called on comrades in Somalia, across the Gulf of Aden, to join his fighters and take control of the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait. That waterway, north of the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden, links the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
The Saudi oil infrastructure in the Eastern Province too has remained a target of extremists for years now. In November 2007, security forces foiled an imminent attack on an oil support installation in the Eastern Province. In February 2006 Saudi security forces failed an extremist attack on the Abqaiq plant.
Yet the markets shrugged off all that - indeed a tribute, a mark of respect to the Saudi successes - in depriving the terrorists from any major successes against the energy infrastructure of the Kingdom. The arrest of the planners, even before the execution of the plan, clearly shows to the world how on top of things the Saudi security apparatus are these days.
And they really seem on top. The Christian Science Monitor reported that the round-up actually began with an unsuccessful extremist attempt last October when two militants tried to infiltrate the Kingdom wearing explosive vests: "That's where we started this business," (a Saudi spokesman) said. "You remember we said they had two other vests (in their car?). That said that there has to be somebody in Saudi Arabia related to this."
This is no mean a success. The markets are now taking the Saudi anti-terrorist measures - rather seriously. "Everyone may react to the news of the round-up with surprise, but Saudi Arabia has really been effective at infiltrating these networks, monitoring them and stopping them," Reva Bhalla, an analyst with Stratfor, a global intelligence company based in Austin said. "There's a huge gap between (al-Qaeda's) intent and their capabilities in Saudi Arabia. So it appears the Saudi apparatus is working."
And in fact in place is an entire apparatus, geared up to protect the huge energy related infrastructure. Saudi Arabia has been building a 35,000-strong rapid reaction force to protect installations. The announcement was made in the immediate aftermath of the thwarted attempt in 2006 on the world's largest oil processing plant in Abqaiq in the Eastern Province - the hub of the Saudi energy infrastructure.
And this all has come at cost - and indeed a huge one. Protecting the energy infrastructure is of strategic importance to the Kingdom - and to the world.
And while ensuring that the crude dynamics are ruled by pragmatists and not romanticists - so abundantly found in this part of the world - Riyadh continues to take measures to ensure stability of supplies and global crude balance.
Containing crude volatility in these turbulent times is not an easy task - and Riyadh needs to be complemented - and not crucified - for its efforts in this direction, one really can't help underlining.

