- BELGRADE: As she hangs onto the bus strap on her way to work each day, Dragica Martinovic is haunted by the same question: "Am I the next in line to be fired?" The eyes of the world are on the Greek crisis and the fallout it is causing on Wall Street and the other big markets.
- Contagion is the buzzword as Germany, France and other developed EU nations brace for new economic turmoil just months after the start of their fitful recovery from the global recession.
But Martinovic and millions of others in the "other Europe" - the poor former Communist nations that have recently joined the EU or are still waiting for entry - are grappling with their own economic drama.
The 55-year-old economist could easily become another victim of the Greek-style austerity measures imposed on Serbia by the International Monetary Fund demanding major cuts in public spending - including layoffs in the state sector - in exchange for a 2.9 billion euros ($3.69 billion) bailout loan.
"With the world focused on the Greek crisis, a major drama is going on in Serbia and the rest of the Balkans," says Martinovic, who works for a state-run construction company. "And no one seems to care." She asked that her company not be named for fear of retribution. But the firm - once the pride of ex-Yugoslavia known for its bridges, dams and other major projects in Africa and Asia - now is on the edge of bankruptcy. It has laid off nearly 100 employees in the past year, and more redundancies are planned The average Serb takes home the equivalent of about 400 euros a month - if he or she is lucky enough to have a job.
Unemployment here is 20 percent officially and 30 percent using non-governmental figures. In both cases, it is growing.
So like others in the Balkans working in the loss-making state sector, Martinovic is nervously watching the Greek financial meltdown and bracing for the fallout that could send the economies of the ´other Europe" - Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria and other formerly communist countries - into a new tailspin.
With the euro plunging to its lowest against the US dollar in more than a year, and leading European equities closing nearly 3 percent down, central and eastern European states are vulnerable because they depend heavily on their bigger Western neighbors.
"There is a potential risk in countries in which Greek banks play a special role, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia," said Thomas Mirow, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which was established to aid former communist states in their transition to market economies.
Bulgaria, which borders Greece, is particularly at risk: Some 28 percent of Bulgaria's banks are Greek-owned and Sofia fears that they could be drained by cash-strapped headquarters in Greece.
Greece is one of its key trading partners and foreign investors, with nearly 10 percent of Bulgarian exports going to the neighbor to the southeast.
On Wednesday, the Bulgarian government introduced a package of austerity measures including a 20 percent spending cut in the public sector.
"I will not let Bulgaria end up in the situation of Greece or some other EU member states which are in a similar financial condition," Prime Minister Boiko Borisov said ahead of announcing the austerity plan.
Addressing fears that Greek banks will siphon out funds from Bulgarian branches, Borisov has ordered the National Bank "to maintain an around-the-clock surveillance on all money transfersª from his country to Greece.
Neighboring Romania is also hurting. Even before the Greek crisis broke full force, it had put in for a 20-billion-euro rescue package from the IMF under similar conditions to Serbia. Earlier this week, Romanian President Traian Basescu announced sweeping cuts to salaries of public sector workers, pensions and unemployment benefits.
He said state sector wages would be cut by one-fourth, and pensions and unemployment payments by around 15 percent starting June 1. There are about 1.3 million people employed by the state in Romania.
Still, experts play down the possibility of a Romanian replay of the Greek meltdown, complete with the kind of violence that left three people dead Wednesday after radicals in Athens torched a bank.
"I don't think we will go down like Greece," political analyst Stelian Tanase said. "Greece has much more debts and the Greeks have been living well for 30 years. Romanians are not used to living well they are used to poor living standards." Montenegro, the tiny Balkan state, could also be hit because - although outside the EU - it uses the euro as its currency.
"If the euro sinks, Montenegro's economy will suffer," said Dragoljub Jankovic, an economic analyst. "Every move of euro could have negative impact on Montenegro's economy." Slovenia, the only ex-Yugoslav state that is in the EU, is also hurting, although not as badly as Serbia, Bulgaria or Romania. But it has not escaped the global economic downturn and support for financially aiding Greece is low.
"Many economists believe Greece will go bankrupt anyway eventually, while the countries can kiss the money they lent to Greece goodbye," wrote Metod Berlec, chief editor of Slovenia's Demokracija newspaper.

