- DUBAI: Middle East is expected to push up the crude demand this year as the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised on Friday its 2010 forecast for global oil demand to one million barrels per day or 1.2 percent.
China, India and Latin America are also likely to be key oil consumers as total demand for 2010 is projected to reach 85.5 million bpd, up from 84.46 million bpd in 2009, according to the group's monthly report.
However, a slower economy in the second half of the year, caused by a phasing out of fiscal stimulus, may affect demand, warned OPEC.
"Looking to the second half, the pace of economic growth is projected to slow, not only in OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) but also across most emerging and developing markets, indicating that oil demand growth will remain moderate. There is need to be cautious about forecasting oil demand for the remainder of 2010," the report said.
"For the whole year, oil demand growth is expected at around one million bpd, lower than the pre-recession annual average of around 1.7 million bpd," OPEC said.
However, the group left unchanged its forecast of a 1.05 million bpd increase in 2011 in global oil demand to 86.56 million bpd. "Next year, the situation is not expected to be much different," it said.
"Global economic recovery is projected to continue through the whole of 2011 with an even distribution between the first and second half of the year," the report said.
Still, "oil demand growth will remain moderate" because of uncertainties about the pace of recovery, it added
OPEC's low estimates for next year oil demand growth were based mainly on its forecast that global GDP growth will marginally slow down to 3.7 percent next year from 3.9 percent this year.
Oil demand in OECD countries grew in the second quarter of the year for the first time since 2007, according to the OPEC report.
The United States will remain a "wild card" next year, OPEC warned. "Any further delay in the country's economic recovery will of course lead to a downward revision in total world oil demand," it added.
OPEC believes next year's additional demand will increase the world's need for its crude. The amount of OPEC oil needed to balance global supply and demand was put at 28.9 million barrels a day in 2011.
While OPEC raised its estimate for supplies from outside the organization by 60,000 barrels a day each for this year and next, it expected non-OPEC producers to bolster output by 790,000 barrels a day this year to average 51.92 million a day, and next year by 350,000 barrels a day to 52.27 million a day.
Crude demand in Asian countries outside the OECD, such as China, will grow by 200,000 barrels a day next year to 10.25 million a day.
The International Energy Agency, the Paris-based advisor to oil consuming nations, forecast a 1.3 million bpd rise for 2011 in its own monthly report on Wednesday.
Crude futures, which rose 78 percent last year as the global economy emerged from the worst financial crisis since World War II, traded around $76 a barrel in New York on Friday.

