The 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has not officially changed production policy since December 2008. It then reacted to a price crash and a recession, which crushed fuel demand, by announcing its deepest ever supply cut.

Initially record levels of compliance with the curbs gave rapid support to the oil price, which has maintained a roughly $70-$85 range for around a year — judged by many in OPEC to be high enough for producers needing to invest in supply and low enough not to damage the world’s economy.

Since the start of this month, it has climbed toward the top of that bracket, supported by the weakness of the US dollar, which makes dollar-denominated commodities relatively cheap.

Many predict the currency will decline further as the world’s biggest economy resorts to stimulus to ward off renewed recession.

Rock-bottom interest rates and a wave of cheap money could drive speculation across asset classes, including oil, unrelated to weak oil market fundamentals of nearly record-high fuel inventories and sluggish demand.

“The big risk is that we start to see the genesis of a rally that in many ways would mirror what happened in 2008,” said Bill Farren-Price of consultancy Petroleum Policy Intelligence.

“I would not be surprised if people start pumping a little bit more.”

No one has so far predicted any formal change to output policy at OPEC’s meeting on Oct. 14.

“There is absolutely no interest to do anything different within OPEC pending a much stronger economic recovery across the world,” said Sadad Al-Husseini, a former top official at Saudi Aramco.

He foresaw the possibility of “some OPEC leakage in environments of rising oil prices,” but said the group’s major players would be most likely to follow a “wait and see strategy” until after the impact of winter fuel demand on high inventories became clear.

In July 2008, prices rallied to a record of nearly $150 a barrel before crashing down to just above $30 in December of that year.

The collapse prompted record OPEC supply curbs to be agreed in Oran, Algeria. They proved to be inspired.

“That was the best decision ever taken by OPEC. It gives a wide range of quantity and flexibility. You can move within this quantity. You just ask for more adherence,” OPEC Secretary-General Abudllah Al-Badri told Reuters in an interview.

Compliance with OPEC’s implied output targets has increased over the past two months to 57 percent, leaving plenty of scope to add or subtract more supplies informally.

“They have flexibility. They can make compliance at 100 percent and they can make it at 50 percent, depending on the market,” said an OPEC official who asked not to be named.

“This time OPEC played it right.”

For most of OPEC’s 50th anniversary year, the group has had the satisfaction of a price for its basket of crudes (slightly cheaper than US benchmark futures) of around $75 — plumb center of the $70-$80 range Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi has said is “the most appropriate price.”

Saudi Arabia, keeper of the most spare capacity, with smaller amounts held by other Gulf nations, has the greatest scope to add or subtract supply.

Together with the other Gulf producers, it has also been traditionally the most anxious to avoid deterring consumer consumption with overly high prices as it seeks to ensure long-term demand, while other OPEC members are more focused on immediate revenues.

Those, such as Iran and Venezuela, which have pursued higher prices have on occasions used dollar-weakness to justify seeking more expensive oil to offset the reduced earning power of OPEC’s dollar-income.

Apart from any disagreement over price, another potentially divisive issue as swollen world supplies outpace weak demand is the huge potential of Iraq and how much it should be allowed to produce.

Its output of around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) has struggled to overcome the impact of years of war and for now it is the only OPEC member that does not have output restrictions.

Iraq’s oil minister has said there is no need to discuss a target for the nation until its output reaches 4 million bpd.

But at the start of October, it laid down a claim for a high OPEC output ceiling when it revised upwards by a quarter its figure for proven oil reserves.