In addition to new consumers from Asia, many of those consumers may come from the MENA region, which currently holds more than 100 million people between the ages of 15 and 29. In the years to come, this "youth bulge" will either be entering the workforce or moving into its prime earning years. But this sprawling mass of young people could easily become a liability if many of them were to fall into poverty. The fate of the MENA region's middle class will ultimately depend on how well governments handle this coming demographic explosion.

First and foremost, MENA governments need to sustain economic growth in order to generate employment opportunities. Although the region has made impressive strides in this regard, there is more to be done, as evidenced by the fact that MENA countries still face a significant unemployment issue: The overall average unemployment rate for MENA region is about 10.6 percent of the labor force, compared to 6.4 percent worldwide; youth unemployment in MENA countries, at 27 percent, is nearly double the global average of 14 percent.

To expand economic activity, MENA governments must continue to diversify their economies, increase private-sector participation, and improve the business environment. For example, they can offer greater support to small- to medium-sized businesses, which are major generators of economic activity and jobs. They must create the right environment for doing business, by establishing efficient procedures to start a business, creating the right regulatory setup to protect investors and minimize labor market rigidities, and facilitating access to credit. They should also aggressively promote public-private partnerships, which are instrumental in expanding opportunities for private companies to prosper.

As MENA governments create the conditions that will lead to more jobs, they must simultaneously help young adults to be qualified for those jobs. Despite MENA governments' investments in ensuring that their young people attain a certain level of education, there is a mismatch between what the education system provides and what the labor market needs. For example, the market is in short supply of science and technology programs such as transportation planning, logistics, and water engineering, are essential to the development of key industries. National graduates from sciences and engineering studies in Saudi Arabia stand at around 9 percent of graduates, while demand for sciences and engineering jobs represents about 55 percent of the country's total labor demand. To address this issue, MENA countries must build a holistic educational system whose parts fit well together; they match the country's aspirations and translate the objectives in a coherent set of policies and strategies. Such a system must be underpinned by an infrastructure that makes its goals attainable - incorporating quality teachers and curricula, reliable assessment and performance measures, and a favorable learning environment.

The final piece of the puzzle in creating a strong middle class is to weave the social safety nets that help insulate the middle class from the ups and downs of the economic cycle. Organized government intervention in the provision of social safety nets is still relatively low: For instance, public spending on health averages 2.8 percent of GDP in MENA countries, versus the OECD average of 7 percent. Pension spending is also relatively low in some MENA countries -it averages 8.5 percent of GDP in OECD countries versus 5.7 percent in Jordan, 4.3 percent in Tunisia, and 3.1 percent in Egypt. Furthermore, social service offerings in the region are being held back by inefficient administration, inadequate financing, and a limited ability to empower target groups. Social policies continue to be crafted in a reactive way, responding to the latest short-term crisis, when they should embody an integrated, long-term vision. As a result, the middle class is vulnerable to economic shocks: People who have achieved that status can slide back down to the low-income segment at the first signs of a downturn.

There are two key of elements to creating such safety nets. One is to formalize the roles of social institutions, including governments and NGOs. The formal provision of social safety nets must be strengthened, both in funding and authority; government agencies and ministries must be staffed and supported to meet social needs. The second is to develop a well-balanced set of social and labor programs to protect the middle class in the event of an economic crisis - such as income support, unemployment support, and training to provide new skills. In addition, it is vital that social services be coordinated and made consistent, in order to achieve desired outcomes. For example, services aimed at supporting the unemployed should not create disincentives to participate in programs that promote skills development and job placement.

Clearly, governments have a daunting task ahead of them. But in order to reap the benefits of having a large and stable middle class, MENA governments must be committed to creating it. Doing so requires not only measures such as those outlined above, but a better understanding of what the middle class is -including data on middle-class earnings, behavior, and needs. Policymakers must take this information into account as they define the middle class as a group that demands - and deserves - government attention to its growth.
 
(Joe Saddi is chairman of Booz & Company. He is based in Beirut, Lebanon.)