Saudi Arabia is expected to see growth of 5.7 percent in 2011, the fastest expansion in eight years, boosted by additional spending.

The forecast from Tuesday’s poll is well up from 4.5 percent seen in a previous Reuters poll in March. The new survey was conducted from June 7-17 among 18 analysts covering the top oil-exporting region.

“We have a higher oil price assumption, and we also have significant increases in government expenditures,” said David Butter, MENA director at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“Adding all this together we see a trend for revising upwards our real GDP growth forecast for most of the Gulf states. Bahrain is the obvious exception,” he said.

The Kingdom has pledged to spend an estimated $130 billion, or around 30 percent of its annual economic output, on new houses, creating jobs, unemployment benefit and other measures.

Some $47 billion from the package is expected to be spent this year and $35 billion in 2012, the poll showed.

The UAE — at $298 billion the second largest Arab economy — is seen growing by 3.7 percent this year, slightly faster than in March and well up from 1.4 percent in 2010 when it faced a debt restructuring challenge.

The overall debt burden of Dubai and its companies is now estimated at around $113 billion, or 138 percent of its gross domestic product, the poll showed, slightly less than the previous estimate of $115 billion from October 2010.

Qatar and Kuwait are also seen showing faster GDP growth in 2011 than expected in March, at 16.7 percent and 4.4 percent respectively, up from 15.8 percent and 4.0 percent.

Meanwhile, Bahrain’s 2011 growth outlook has been slashed for the second time in a row, to 2.7 percent from 3.4 percent, following its worst civil unrest since the 1990s, making the non-OPEC oil producer the worst performer in the region.

Oman, hit by more limited protests demanding jobs and an end to graft, should see its economy expand by 4.1 percent this year, unchanged from March.

Both small countries are expected to receive a combined $20 billion from their wealthier neighbors.

Increased government spending on social measures is expected to take a toll on Gulf fiscal balances this year, although they will mostly remain in surplus, helped by oil prices of above $94 per barrel, the poll also showed.

“The Saudi government will spend twice as much this year as they did in 2006,” said James Reeve, senior economist at Samba Financial Group.

“With increased government spending, people become more confident and we expect private consumption and investment to pick up.”

Saudi Arabia’s budget break-even oil price for US crude is now estimated at $80 per barrel following the increased spending, the poll also showed.

Among the Gulf countries, only Kuwait is expected to post a wider budget surplus than forecast in March, of 20.2 percent of GDP in the fiscal year that started in April.

Bahrain is the only state projected to see a deficit in 2011 — unchanged from the previous forecast at 1.4 percent of GDP.

In Saudi Arabia, the government fiscal surplus is expected to edge down to 6.9 percent of GDP compared to March’s forecast.

Inflation was expected to remain in single digits across the Gulf this year — the highest seen in Saudi Arabia at 5.6 percent — with forecasts little changed from March.