Some people are, however, worried that China’s economic growth might stagnate and it may fall into “middle-income trap” as its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has already topped $4,000. They also say that the economy may enter a conflict-prone period in view of these factors.

Others have expressed concern over issues such as inflation, overheating of China’s economy and its ageing population.

However, we have every reason to be fully confident of China’s economic outlook although there is no doubt that rapid development gives rise to challenges and difficulties.

Above all, China’s developing economy offers many special advantages.

Stephen S. Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, recently pointed out that 316 million more people are likely to move from the countryside to cities over the next 20 years.

Such an unprecedented wave of urbanization provides solid prospects for infrastructure investment and commercial and residential construction activity.

More than 1.5 million engineers and scientists graduate from Chinese universities every year. China also ranked fourth in 2009 in terms of international patent applications. The country is well on its way to a knowledge-based economy. (— May 27, 2011). Morgan Stanley’s economic analyst Wang Qing says that China is a massive country with the largest population and imbalanced development in different areas and comparatively low GDP per capita could mean that state still has enormous room for development.

Moreover, China has drawn up the 12th five-year plan — laying out a blueprint for economic restructuring and development in the next five years.

There is a primary need to increase domestic demand by switching to an economic growth model that integrates consumption, investment and exports.

Innovative restructuring is also essential — relying more on scientific and technological progress and management innovation for economic growth.

Under this plan, China will aim to reduce the energy intensity of its economy by 16 percent and increase the share of energy produced from non-fossil-fuel sources to 11 percent in five years.

Roach pointed out that the 12th five-year plan could well be a strategic turning point — ushering in a shift from the highly successful producer model of the past 30 years to a flourishing consumer society.

Finally, the international community is optimistic about China’s economy.

The global economic community agrees that China will become the largest economy in 2050, or 2030, or as early as 2019.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made an optimistic prediction that China will become the world’s largest economy in five years in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). (, June 9, 2011.)

Most economists forecast that China will become the world’s largest economy in the near future. The time China would take to achieve that status is not a major issue — what’s more crucial is the strong and positive signals emerging from the Chinese economy.

According to the Germany newspaper , many economists are optimistic that China would overcome current economic challenges.

China has always been successfully controlling the overheating of its economy, without snuffing out growth.

Wang Qing and other analysts of Morgan Stanley believe that although it may not be possible to maintain an annual 10-percent growth rate over a long period, a rate of eight percent is achievable over the next few years.

In terms of history, China has no culture or tradition of seeking expansion or hegemony.

Throughout our history of thousands of years, benevolence and harmony are at the heart of our political and cultural tradition.

Former US State Secretary Kissinger’s narrative sees Confucian roots in contemporary Chinese decision-making and upheavals.

It means that rather than seeking imperial rule, China will be content as the regional “Middle Kingdom”. (— , May 17, 2011.)

Francesco Sisci, Asia Editor of Italian newspaper News, pointed out that China has not fought any expansionist war for more than a century. In fact, it has been fighting wars for more than 100 years against enemies trying to carve out its territory. (— , May 7, 2011.)

In terms of regional and global development, the rise and fall of some big powers in the world tells us: Expansionism leads to nowhere; arms race leads to nowhere; seeking world domination leads to nowhere; and peaceful development is the only right path.

In Francesco Sisci’s view, the lesson learned by China in the past 30 years is that it can rise only through peace, not through war.

China needs peace for its development. Without peace, its development could be in jeopardy and gains made in the past three decades could easily be forfeited.

In terms of realism, China neither has the will nor the ability to seek expansion and hegemony.

In his article to newspaper of Britain, retired British lieutenant-general Graeme Lamb pointed out that China feeds a fifth of the world’s population with only 10 percent of the world’s arable land.

The country will have to work harder just to feed itself and to meet the rising expectations of its population.

China’s absolute priorities are economic growth and higher standards of living — not the reckless pursuit of military superiority. (— , June 3, 2011.)

Prosperous China is an important engine for world development.

Over the years, China’s economy has contributed more than 10 percent to global economic growth and more than 12 percent to international trade expansion, creating millions of job opportunities in various countries and regions.

A recent article in the IMF’s quarterly journal Finance and Development highlighted the fact that 1 percentage point shock to China’s GDP growth is followed by a cumulative response in other countries’ growth of 0.2 percentage point after three years and 0.4 percentage point after five years.

Following the path of peaceful development is a strategic choice by the Chinese government and people.

This choice will play an increasingly important role in safeguarding global security and stability.

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