Francois Hollande, the most likely Socialist candidate in the election due in April, would win in the second round of a two-stage election with 57 percent of the votes against 43 percent for Sarkozy, the survey by pollster IFOP showed.

Martine Aubry, who will compete against Hollande for the Socialist Party’s nomination in a primary in October, would also defeat Sarkozy but by a smaller margin, with 53 percent of vote intentions, IFOP said.

In the first round of voting, which will be open to a wider selection of candidates, Hollande would beat Sarkozy with 28 percent against 25 percent for the center-right president.

Another poll, published last week, showed the two candidates neck-and-neck in the first round of the election, with Sarkozy improving his support by 5 percentage points — his largest boost in months of dismal popularity, with widespread disappointment over the economy.

Sarkozy’s chances, if he seeks re-election, have increased since his strongest rival, former International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn, was arrested in New York on attempted rape charges.

The IFOP poll showed Hollande improving his score by two points since the last time it carried out a similar survey, on June 9 and 10. Sarkozy advanced by one to two percentage points, depending on different election scenarios.

The poll was conducted on July 19-21 on a sample of 948 people.

Another poll, published on Wednesday, had shown 66 percent of people questioned were against Sarkozy serving a second term, with just 29 percent in favor. Sixty percent of respondents also said they thought Sarkozy would not be re-elected.