- LONDON: Some international portfolio investors are finding value in gas-rich Qatar and Dubai's recently rehabilitated stock market, even as global financial markets weaken and political risks deter buyers in other parts of the Middle East and North Africa.
With equity prices across the world tumbling, Qatar has been one of the few markets to post even modest gains this year, second only in the MSCI frontier stock market index to the tiny exchange of Trinidad and Tobago. The main Qatar stock index is up about half a percentage point this year, while almost all other markets have fallen.
The Gulf country, which is sitting on huge gas reserves, got a boost last year from its surprise victory in the competition to host the 2022 soccer World Cup. But Qatar's spending on infrastructure for the championship is only part of a broader state spending program by one of the world's fastest-growing economies.
"We like Qatar's predictability, with hydrocarbon reserves stretching out for 80 years," said David von Simson, London-based chairman of the $230 million Qatar Investment Fund. "It's the most attractive market in the region."
Although the fund is permitted to invest up to 15 percent of its money in Gulf countries other than Qatar, currently less than 1 percent is invested outside the country, von Simson said, because Qatari stock valuations are still relatively cheap.
At the same time, Qatar and other Gulf markets have been helped during the downturn by the fact they are still relatively isolated from the global investment universe and are not part of major portfolio indexes compiled by firms such as MSCI.
"They are less correlated because they are off-benchmark. As liquidity has come out of emerging markets, there has been less to come out of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region," said John Lomax, head of emerging markets equity strategy at HSBC.
Energy prices are therefore the main way that a global economic slowdown could damage Gulf markets. So far, however, the Brent crude oil price has stayed above $100 a barrel -- well above the range of $70-$90 or below which analysts estimate Gulf states need to balance their budgets. Unless the oil price falls beneath that range, the global slowdown may have little impact on Gulf stock markets.
A lack of trading liquidity is one big issue for foreign investors in the Gulf; trading activity has not yet recovered from the crash of 2008, making investment more risky. But for long-term investment funds, this is less of an issue.
This helps to explain renewed interest among some funds in Dubai. The restructuring of Dubai's corporate sector, symbolized by Dubai World's pledge to restructure $25 billion of debt, will take years. But the willingness of Abu Dhabi to support Dubai has encouraged funds to take another look at the market, which is down around 11 percent this year, outperforming many markets around the world.
Despite the debt restructuring, Dubai's debt insurance costs are around 480 basis points in the five-year credit default swap market — it costs $480,000 a year for five years to insure $10 million of Dubai's debt. This compares with Italy at around 475 bps.
In addition, investors are hoping that MSCI may upgrade both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to emerging equity status from frontier market status as soon as this year. MSCI considered upgrading the two markets earlier this year but extended its review until December, warning that Qatar needed to reduce restrictions on foreign ownership of stocks to become a full-fledged emerging market. Investors think this may still happen in time for MSCI's December review.
Joining the emerging market stock index would leave those markets more exposed to the volatility of global fund flows, but in the short term at least it could prompt fresh inflows of money as the mass of fund managers sought exposure.
"We are very positive on the UAE — we expect that the UAE will be upgraded and constitute half a percent of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, a similar weight to Hungary, Colombia, Peru and the Czech Republic," said Emad Mostaque, MENA strategist at Religare Capital Markets.

