In the deal with the World Trade Organization, sealed on Friday after 18 years of tortuous negotiations, Russia retains important privileges, including protective auto sector tariffs. 

When these lapse after a seven-year transition period, steelmakers will have to hope that domestic car plants are strong enough to compete against imports, keeping demand for Russian steel high. 

Domestic manufacturers will also have to ensure that their steel can compete in quality with imports, which will have greater access to the Russian market. 

"There are negative risks for Russian steel demand as a result of increased competition with importers for Russian (steel) consumers," said Anton Bazulev, communications director at Novolipetsk Steel, Russia's No. 4 producer. 

Russia's auto sector is one of the nation's most steel-intensive sectors, while the total machinery sector (automotive, railcars and other machinery) historically accounts for 15-17 percent of domestic consumption, according to UBS. 

WTO ministers on Friday approved Russia's entry, and parliament has until June 15 to ratify the accession documents, allowing Russia to become a full member shortly thereafter.

Under the terms of the accession agreement, a 25 percent auto import duty will remain in place until 2019, shielding local producers for the time being. It will then fall to 15 percent, and automakers could struggle against foreign rivals. 

"As import tariffs on manufactured goods and autos would be reduced, we expect that imports of these goods would increase," Raiffeisen analyst Iryna Trygub-Kainz said.  

"Growing imports might substitute domestically produced goods, which would put pressure on domestic demand for steel products from manufacturing and automotive segments." 

The Russian car market is in the global spotlight because sales are soaring. The Boston Consulting Group estimates that an annual growth rate of 8 to 14 percent will make Russia Europe's largest car market by 2018.

Foreign manufacturers are flooding in, keen to localise production, avoid import tariffs and take advantage of other benefits provided to global majors that set up plants in Russia. 

Steel producers, led by Severstal and Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works, are investing heavily to supply the new plants with high-quality steel, with MMK launching a $1.5 billion automotive steel mill in July.

While the long-term picture is murky, mills in the world's fifth-largest steel producing nation will see immediate gains upon WTO entry. They will have access to the club's dispute settlement process, and the European Union's annual import quota of 3.2 million tons will fall. 

"Russian steel is competitive on international markets and it is subject to anti-dumping cases," World Bank economist David Tarr said. 

"Not being a WTO member, Russian steel has weaker rights in anti-dumping cases; as a WTO member Russian steel exporters will have improved legal rights in foreign anti-dumping cases." 

Tarr estimates that WTO entry will lift Russia's GDP by 3.7 percent over the next five years and 11 percent in the long term. 

Severstal Chief Executive Alexei Mordashov, who also served as a the head of Russia's working group on WTO accession, said that regardless of any quantifiable economic impact, membership improves global perceptions of the G-8 member. 

"This accession has a very strategic long-term impact because of the significant step forward in the improvement of the business climate in our country, which is very important and beneficial for all industries," he said on Friday in Geneva. 

"It means more foreign direct investments, more investments by Russian entrepreneurs into the economy, more predictable trade and economic regime in the country, which is necessary to facilitate the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises." 

In the long term, even if the steelmakers' bet on the survival of Russian industry pays off, some analysts say the overall effect of WTO entry could pull down their profits. 

"I have been a bit surprised that some experts in the sector believe it is extremely positive for Russian steel," Renaissance Capital analyst Boris Krasnojenov said. "Russian steel is not pessimistic about WTO, but they are not definitely optimistic." 

Russian steel mills are now among the world's most profitable thanks in part to low prices for transport and energy, which analysts say will rise towards European market levels as a result of concessions made during the WTO accession process. 

"Transportation costs for Russian and foreign-made goods would gradually reach equilibrium by mid-2013, which basically implies that for Russian steelmakers some cost advantages would gradually evaporate," Trygub-Kainz said. 

Raiffeisen estimates that the 2012 margin for the Russian steel sector on earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) will be 19.3 percent, compared with a 10.5 percent average for global peers.      

Russia has also agreed to market-based pricing for natural gas as part of its WTO accession agreement.

Renaissance Capital's Krasnojenov said Russian mills currently pay about $100 per thousand cubic metres, well below the $350-$400 level paid by European rivals. 

Gas-fired power plants account for 41 percent of total Russian installed electricity capacity, according to analysts at Moscow Uralsib bank, thus suppressing prices in the entire domestic energy market.