- NEW YORK: The US Energy Information Administration has boosted its forecast for global oil demand growth for the first time since October, and forecast the market would tighten as gains in non-OPEC production lag.
The US government agency hiked estimates for 2012 oil demand growth from last month's report by 50,000 barrels per day for this year to 1.32 million bpd It revised 2013 growth up by 20,000 bpd to 1.49 million bpd.
It is the first time the EIA had increased its global oil demand growth forecast in four months, having trimmed expectations by a total of 270,000 bpd in the previous 3 reports.
The agency also reduced its forecast for output from non-OPEC countries by 140,000 bpd to 52.54 million bpd for 2012, which is up 770,000 bpd from 2011 levels.
"EIA expects that the market will rely on both inventories and increases in production of crude oil and non-crude liquids from OPEC members to meet world demand growth," the agency said in its monthly Short Term Energy Outlook, forecasting benchmark US oil prices could average more than $100 a barrel for the first time ever in 2012.
Gasoline prices in the US are expected to average $3.55 a gallon in 2012, up 2 cents a gallon on last year. The EIA cautioned, however, that the oil market is currently pricing a 1 in 4 chance they could jump above $4 a gallon in June.
The EIA said it expected an oil exports dispute between South Sudan and Sudan to cut oil production there this year by more than half to 210,000 bpd from 425,000 bpd in 2011. Output was expected to bounce back to around 340,000 bpd in 2013.
The agency expected other output declines in Russia, Mexico and the United Kingdom to be offset by growth from US shale formations, Canada, Brazil, Kazakhstan and China.
The EIA increased its estimates for 2013 non-OPEC production growth by 90,000 bpd with total output forecast at 53.39 million bpd.
The EIA also said it expected the US to remain a net oil product exporter this year. Amid slackening US demand for products such as gasoline, the country was expected to be a net product exporter of 350,000 bpd in 2012, and a more modest 320,000 bpd in 2013, the EIA said.
The agency cautioned, however, that its forecasts remained subject to significant uncertainty given tensions between the West and Iran and the ongoing euro zone crisis.
"Should a significant oil supply disruption occur, and OPEC members do not increase production, or projected non-OPEC projects come online more slowly than expected, oil prices could be significantly higher than projected in this Outlook," the EIA said.
"If the pace of global economic growth fails to accelerate in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, or if economic growth slows in non-OECD countries, reduced demand could result in lower prices."

