Despite this buffeting, private consumption growth has remained robust, and has been supported by an expansionary fiscal policy. Available national accounts data show that private consumption growth eased somewhat in 2010, but an exceptional fiscal stimulus in 2011, including salary bonuses and new job creation, is expected to have pushed private consumption growth back toward double figures. This is supported by high frequency data, which put the volume of points of sale transactions - a proxy for retail sales-up by a quarter in 2011, while private sector imports were up 15 percent. With private consumption accounting for around a third of nominal GDP, this has positive implications for overall economic expansion, the report said.

Looking ahead, while the world faces an uncertain and volatile outlook, Saudi consumers appear in good shape to support healthy consumption growth. Household debt has been brought down, earlier stock market losses absorbed, and market engagement is now more measured. Unemployment benefit has been introduced, and domestic credit is flowing more freely again, with banks well capitalized and highly liquid. Having grown by almost 7 percent last year, real GDP growth is expected to remain robust as public spending - aimed at diversifying the economy-stays firm, bolstered by large oil revenues. Government efforts to support job creation in the private and public sector will help turn population dynamics into a positive for consumption and growth.

With inflation stabilizing the prospects for real income gains are also positive, while the outlook for the stock market is reasonably healthy.

Crucially, oil prices have been strong, rising by nearly 40 percent in 2011, and providing ample space for the government to increase spending, while also boosting confidence. Average prices could slip by around 10 percent this year, but we expect that they will hold around $100 per barrel. This will be sufficient to support high spending and still generate substantial fiscal and current account surpluses.

Taken together the outlook for private consumption is generally positive. However, consumer confidence could yet be unsettled by global and/or regional events. The euro zone debt crisis will take years to resolve, and the hesitant signs of progress could quickly be reversed if one or several countries decided to exit the zone. Such an eventuality would be extremely negative for the euro zone's banks, and the impact on global trade - and hence oil demand-could be serious.

The Samba report said growing populations are a key driver of economic growth both in terms of providing final demand (for goods, services, real estate, infrastructure, etc.) and to provide the labor needed for their production. Data from SAMA (Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency), based on results from the 2010 census, show that the Kingdom's total population has grown by an annual average rate of 3.4 percent since 2004 to reach 27.6 million at end-2010. This puts Saudi Arabia among the world's top ten fastest-growing countries, and compares to a global population growth rate of about 1.2 percent. This growth rate has been an important driver of economic activity in the kingdom, but drilling down into the data points to subtle shifts in likely consumption patterns.

The changing growth rates of nationals and expatriates points to shifting consumption patterns

Saudi Arabia's population profile is now distinctly youthful, with around 30 percent of Saudis aged between 15 and 29. This in turn means that the need to create jobs is pressing, and has been the key principle guiding economic policy for some time. But the youthful profile also creates distinct consumption patterns: Young people are more likely to spend their disposable income on consumer goods, such as cars, clothes, and electronic items. This tendency is bolstered by the scarcity of affordable housing, which means that many young people tend to stay at home with their families for extended periods of time, in the process delaying marriage. Without mortgages or rent to pay, or children to raise, more disposable income can be devoted to these types of consumer goods, the Samba report said.