Even after the fragile cease-fire that started on Thursday, Syria is still trapped between the rock of an increasing international siege and the sand of peaceful opposition. Just a day after the cease-fire, the Syrian troops killed Syrian people albeit on a smaller scale.

On Friday, thousands of Syrian took to the streets across the country in a display of defiance. President Bashar Assad’s troops reacted violently by using fire and tear gas to beat the demonstrators.

“It was an example of what a large peaceful protest can be like when the government does not intervene and fire on people,” remarked an activist. The rallies were perhaps the biggest since the beginning of the Syrian revolution. They stretched from the suburbs of the capital Damascus to the Idlib, Hama, and Daraa. Syrian troops had killed six people.

Of course, the number of protesters could have been threefold had Assad not violated the terms of the truce. He failed to pull out his heavy weapon and tanks for cities. This had a chilling effect on some especially in Damascus. World leaders are skeptical over Assad’s intentions and whether the truce would endure. "I don't believe Bashar Assad is sincere," said French President Nicholas Sarkozy. Indeed, for many world leaders, the internationally backed truce is at the heart of the Kofi Annan’s six-point plan to put an end to violence in Syria to pave the way for talks between the regime and the opposition. It came in the wake of the realization that the international community had little options to deal with the Syrian crisis. 

Though the sympathy with the revolution has been remarkable, yet a few countries expressed their enthusiasm to intervene to protect the Syrians for feat that such intervention would spark a regional conflict. Assad had all time to crush the revolution using heavy weapon and on some occasions his air force.

“Syria is apparently experiencing a rare moment of calm on the ground.” That said, both Annan and Ban Ki-moon expressed concern about Assad history of reneged commitments throughout the 13-month odd conflict. “

The onus is on the government of Syria to prove that their words will be matched by their deeds at this time,” Ban said in Geneva after meeting with Annan. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that all parties to the conflict are buying time including Assad.

This is particularly true in the case of the United States. Washington’s reaction to the news of a cease-fire was cautious. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described it “an important step” yet she stressed out that the Syrian regime must take more steps to fully comply with Annan’s plan. 

Now where to move from here? Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a visit to Riyadh Friday.

The Syrian crisis dominated the agenda in Riyadh. In addition to the Syrian regime, Iran must have watched the Riyadh meeting for fear of a Saudi-Turkish understanding over the Syria conflict in and Iran. Soner Cagaptay from Washington Institute said that the Iran and Turkey are competing in a new Middle East. “Welcome to the new Middle East which increasingly looks too small to accommodate both Turkey and Iran.”

“This is why Iran-Turkey relations remain in dire straits even after Tehran reluctantly agreed to have Istanbul as the venue for the next round of Iran-P5+1 talks. The key dispute is centered on the future of the Assad regime in Damascus.

Iran considers Assad's departure as an important geopolitical loss, while Ankara is busy building opposition to Damascus.” “From Iran's perspective; its disagreement with Turkey over Syria is an unbridgeable rift. But the debate in Tehran has moved on and is now about whether Iran can afford to let ties with Ankara slip further,” he said.

The Friday meeting between the Turkish prime minister and Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah insinuates that Assad’s new tactics fools neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey. To them, the cease-fire is most likely will not hold. In fact, foreign leaders continued to express deep doubts about how long the cease-fire will hold. Sarkozy was on record casting doubt on the sincerity of Assad to honor his commitments as stated in the six-point plan of Annan.

Now if the cease-fire holds — a big if — the Syrian people will be gathering at a larger number triggering a huge revolution that potentially can bring down the regime. They are going to be emboldened by the presence of international observers who will report any breach of the regime to the cease-fire thus putting a huge pressure on the regime.

The UN Security Council will put a real pressure on Assad and Russia may lose patience with Assad and get tougher. Accordingly, the demand of a “no-fly zone” to provide a safe places for the opposition will be justified and will gain international momentum.