MUMBAI: India’s overseas purchases of gold could halve this month after jumping to the highest level in 11 months in November because retail demand has faltered due to the government’s move to scrap high-value currency notes, industry officials said.

Lower imports by the world’s second-biggest consumer of gold could weigh on global prices that are already trading near their lowest level in 10 months, although it would likely help the South Asian country trim its trade deficit.

“In December gold imports could fall below 50 tons. Retail demand is very weak due to the cash crunch,” said Bachhraj Bamalwa, director of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation.

The November imports jumped to around 100 tons, highest since December 2015, Bamalwa said, as people with unaccounted wealth rushed to buy bullion following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s shock withdrawal of 500 and 1,000 rupee banknotes to fight graft and “black money.”

The Indian government has also put strict limits on the amount of money people can withdraw from banks, although a larger sum, 250,000 rupees ($3,660), is allowed for weddings — a big driver of demand for gold — as long as participants can prove that the marriage is genuine.

Anticipating curbs on gold imports, banks and other nominated agencies ramped up overseas purchases in mid-November, but demand plunged by the third week of the month due to the shortfall of currency notes, dealers said.

“A significant chunk of November imports are still unsold. Import requirement for December is limited,” said Sudheesh Nambiath, a senior analyst at metals consultancy GFMS, a division of Thomson Reuters.

Indian jewellers rely on the wedding season for an uptick in demand during winter months after the end of key festivals such as Diwali. Weddings accounts for more than half of the country’s annual demand for gold, according to GFMS.

But the difficulties of getting enough cash have hit wedding demand hard and forced many consumers to exchange old jewelry for new, says Kumar Jain, vice president of the Mumbai Jewellers Association.

“The demand will remain low for the next few months. It will take time to recover.”

The price of gold fell more than 8 percent in November, hurt by a jump in the dollar and Treasury yields after Donald Trump’s surprise election to the US presidency last month, and by expectations that the Federal Reserve is gearing up to lift interest rates for only the second time in a decade in December.

Spot gold was down 0.8 percent at $1,163.31 an ounce at 1505 GMT Thursday, having earlier reached a 10-month low of $1,160.38.

US gold futures for February delivery were down $8.30 an ounce at $1,165.60.

“Gold has effectively gone into a downward spiral, triggered by the Trump election and the dollar strength that has come through from that,” Oxford Economics analyst Daniel Smith said.

“We see that dollar strength persisting over the next year, so there are a lot of reasons to think gold is going to struggle.”

Bond yields have surged since Republican candidate Donald Trump’s shock election victory, which led to speculation that his commitment to infrastructure spending would spur growth and inflation. That pushed the dollar sharply higher, with the US unit hitting its highest since 2003 last week.

While it retreated on Thursday, it remains at highly elevated levels.

US 10-year Treasury yields hit 16-1/2 month highs on Thursday.