WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Keeping things in balance

Brent crude rose above $64 per barrel after OPEC+ producers unanimously agreed to deepen output cuts by 503,000 barrels per day. (AFP/File)
Updated 08 December 2019

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Keeping things in balance

  • The over-compliance will result in cuts of 1.7 million bpd

Brent crude rose above $64 per barrel after OPEC+ producers unanimously agreed to deepen output cuts by 503,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a total 1.7 million bpd till the end of the first quarter of 2020.

The breakdown is that OPEC producers are due to cut 372,000 bpd and non-OPEC producers to cut 131,000 bpd.

Current market dynamics led to this decision as oil price-positive news outweighed more bearish developments in the US-China trade narrative that has weighed on oil prices throughout the year, with US crude exports rising to a record 3.4 million bpd in October versus 3.1 million bpd in September.

OPEC November crude oil output levels at 29.8 million bpd show that producers were already overcomplying with its current 1.2 million bpd output cuts deal by around 400,000 bpd. 

The over-compliance will result in cuts of 1.7 million bpd, especially when Saudi Arabia continues to voluntarily cut more than its share.

This makes the agreed 1.7 million bpd output cuts pragmatic since it won’t taken any barrels out of the market.

It isn’t a matter of OPEC making room in the market for other additional supplies from non-OPEC sources, as OPEC barrels can’t be easily replaced.

Instead, this is about avoiding any oversupply that might damage the global supply-demand balance.

Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has effectively kept his promise and managed to smoothly forge a consensus among OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

He has also successfully managed the 24-country coalition of OPEC+ including Russia in reaching an agreement.

Despite suggestions otherwise in recent coverage of the Vienna meeting, the deeper cuts announced on Friday have nothing to do with the Aramco IPO. Let’s remember this meeting was scheduled six months ago and the IPO has been in the works for much longer.

The Aramco share sale did not target a specific oil price. If that was a motivating factor it could easily have chosen another time.


IMF cuts global growth forecast and flags Middle East security worries

Updated 4 min 23 sec ago

IMF cuts global growth forecast and flags Middle East security worries

  • International economy is receiving significant boost — 0.5 percentage point of growth last year and this year
  • But IMF warns global economy continues to face array of risks

LONDON: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth predictions for 2020 despite a slightly improving world economy and warned that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could impact global oil supplies.

It expects world economic growth to accelerate be 2.9 percent last year, rising to 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021.

The IMF released the figures ahead at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“Rising geopolitical tensions, notably between the United States and Iran, could disrupt global oil supply, hurt sentiment and weaken already tentative business investment,” the IMF said.

The Middle East and Central Asia is expected to record 2.8 percent growth in 2020, slightly lower than the IMF's October outlook and reflecting a downward revision to Saudi Arabia’s oil output following last month’s decision by the OPEC+ group to extend supply cuts.

It expects the region to pick up speed in 2021 with growth of 3.2 percent.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said: “We’ve seen clearly a rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. We still have to see how far this goes. If you look at oil prices the reaction has been fairly muted at this point. We’ve seen some increase of about 3 to 4 dollars in the price of oil but nothing very large.”

Regional tensions have escalated sharply after the killing of a top Iranian commander in Baghdad, triggering Iranian retaliatory attacks.

“Prospects for several economies remain subdued owing to rising geopolitical tensions (Iran), social unrest (including in Iraq and Lebanon), and civil strife (Libya, Syria, Yemen),” the IMF said.

Although overall risks to the global economy have reduced over the year, the IMF warned that outcomes “depend to an important extent on avoiding further escalation” between Washington and Beijing.

It also flagged the possibility of new trade tensions emerging between the US and the EU.

“The reality is that global growth remains sluggish,” said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. “We are all adjusting to live with the new normal of uncertainty.”