Turkey interest rate cut to dampen foreign investor appeal

Low interest rates are expected to undermine Turkey’s ability to appeal to domestic and foreign investors. (AFP)
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Updated 19 January 2020

Turkey interest rate cut to dampen foreign investor appeal

  • The latest 75 basis point cut on Jan. 16 follows four consecutive cuts during the last four monetary policy meetings that were held last yea

LONDON: Turkey’s move to cut interest rates highlights the country’s economic fragility and its exposure to geopolitical risk, say analysts.

The latest 75 basis point cut on Jan. 16 follows four consecutive cuts during the last four monetary policy meetings that were held last year. In a bid to stimulate growth, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also hinted recently about the forthcoming interest rate cuts. 

However, low interest rates are expected to undermine Turkey’s ability to appeal to domestic and foreign investors.

Foreign direct investment remains muted, totaling about $5.9 billion in 2019, and mostly concentrated on the real estate sector. Iraqi citizens were the main buyers of Turkish properties last year, followed by Iranians, Russians, Saudi Arabians and Afghans.

The current account deficit is also alarming for many economists and investors. 

Struggling to recover from an economic recession since the summer of 2018, the Turkish lira lost more than a third of its value against the dollar over the last two years.

The aggressive foreign policy moves of Turkey’s government, first in Syria and now in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, may also increase the country’s economic fragility especially considering impending sanctions from the US over its purchase of a Russian missile defense system. The deployment of Turkish forces and their ongoing training process, along with the drones and armaments that are being sent to support them, are also a burden to the economy. 

Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of Teneo Intelligence in London, said the rate cut had shown once more that the government’s priority remains growth and not regaining credibility. 

“The positive external backdrop means that Turkey is likely to get away with limited costs. However, this won’t last forever. There is still no indication that the government is serious in tackling the long term challenges the economy faces,” he told Arab News.

The Turkish Central Bank’s next Monetary Policy Committee is set for Feb. 19.

The dismissal of the former governor of the Central Bank, Murat Centinkaya, by President Erdogan in July sparked criticism about the independence of the bank and was considered a sign of Erdogan’s determination to keep lower interest rates by appointing a new figure closer to him. 


S&P 500 inches closer to record high

Updated 12 August 2020

S&P 500 inches closer to record high

  • US stock market index returns to levels last seen before the onset of coronavirus crisis

NEW YORK: The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed in on its February record high, returning to levels last seen before the onset of the coronavirus crisis that caused one of Wall Street’s most dramatic crashes in history.

The benchmark index was about half a percent below its peak hit on Feb. 19, when investors started dumping shares in anticipation of what proved to be the biggest slump in the US economy since the Great Depression.

Ultra-low interest rates, trillions of dollars in stimulus and, more recently, a better-than-feared second quarter earnings season have allowed all three of Wall Street’s main indexes to recover.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq has led the charge, boosted by “stay-at-home winners” Amazon.com Inc., Netflix Inc. and Apple Inc. The index was down about 0.4 percent.

The blue chip Dow surged 1.2 percent, coming within 5 percent of its February peak.

“You’ve got to admit that this is a market that wants to go up, despite tensions between US-China, despite news of the coronavirus not being particularly encouraging,” said Andrea Cicione, a strategist at TS Lombard.

“We’re facing an emergency from the health, economy and employment point of view — the outlook is a lot less rosy. There’s a disconnect between valuation and the actual outlook even though lower rates to some degree justify high valuation.”

Aiding sentiment, President Vladimir Putin claimed Russia had become the first country in the world to grant regulatory approval to a COVID-19 vaccine. But the approval’s speed has concerned some experts as the vaccine still must complete final trials.

Investors are now hoping Republicans and Democrats will resolve their differences and agree on another relief program to support about 30 million unemployed Americans, as the battle with the virus outbreak was far from over with US cases surpassing 5 million last week.

Also in focus are Sino-US tensions ahead of high-stakes trade talks in the coming weekend.

“Certainly the rhetoric from Washington has been negative with regards to China ... there’s plenty of things to worry about, but markets are really focused more on the very easy fiscal and monetary policies at this point,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago.

Financials, energy and industrial sectors, that have lagged the benchmark index this year, provided the biggest boost to the S&P 500 on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 was set to rise for the eighth straight session, its longest streak of gains since April 2019.

The S&P 500 was up 15.39 points, or 0.46 percent, at 3,375.86, about 18 points shy of its high of 3,393.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 341.41 points, or 1.23 percent, at 28,132.85, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 48.37 points, or 0.44 percent, at 10,919.99.

Royal Caribbean Group jumped 4.6 percent after it hinted at new safety measures aimed at getting sailing going again after months of cancellations. Peers Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. and Carnival Corp. also rose.

US mall owner Simon Property Group Inc. gained 4.1 percent despite posting a disappointing second quarter profit, as its CEO expressed some hope over a recovery in retail as lockdown measures in some regions eased.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners 3.44-to-1 on the NYSE and 1.44-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded 35 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 50 new highs and four new lows.