Turkey interest rate cut to dampen foreign investor appeal

Low interest rates are expected to undermine Turkey’s ability to appeal to domestic and foreign investors. (AFP)
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Updated 19 January 2020

Turkey interest rate cut to dampen foreign investor appeal

  • The latest 75 basis point cut on Jan. 16 follows four consecutive cuts during the last four monetary policy meetings that were held last yea

LONDON: Turkey’s move to cut interest rates highlights the country’s economic fragility and its exposure to geopolitical risk, say analysts.

The latest 75 basis point cut on Jan. 16 follows four consecutive cuts during the last four monetary policy meetings that were held last year. In a bid to stimulate growth, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also hinted recently about the forthcoming interest rate cuts. 

However, low interest rates are expected to undermine Turkey’s ability to appeal to domestic and foreign investors.

Foreign direct investment remains muted, totaling about $5.9 billion in 2019, and mostly concentrated on the real estate sector. Iraqi citizens were the main buyers of Turkish properties last year, followed by Iranians, Russians, Saudi Arabians and Afghans.

The current account deficit is also alarming for many economists and investors. 

Struggling to recover from an economic recession since the summer of 2018, the Turkish lira lost more than a third of its value against the dollar over the last two years.

The aggressive foreign policy moves of Turkey’s government, first in Syria and now in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, may also increase the country’s economic fragility especially considering impending sanctions from the US over its purchase of a Russian missile defense system. The deployment of Turkish forces and their ongoing training process, along with the drones and armaments that are being sent to support them, are also a burden to the economy. 

Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of Teneo Intelligence in London, said the rate cut had shown once more that the government’s priority remains growth and not regaining credibility. 

“The positive external backdrop means that Turkey is likely to get away with limited costs. However, this won’t last forever. There is still no indication that the government is serious in tackling the long term challenges the economy faces,” he told Arab News.

The Turkish Central Bank’s next Monetary Policy Committee is set for Feb. 19.

The dismissal of the former governor of the Central Bank, Murat Centinkaya, by President Erdogan in July sparked criticism about the independence of the bank and was considered a sign of Erdogan’s determination to keep lower interest rates by appointing a new figure closer to him. 


China bank overhaul frees up $56bn for virus-hit economy

Updated 15 min 40 sec ago

China bank overhaul frees up $56bn for virus-hit economy

  • Beijing cuts small and mid-sized banks’ reserves, releasing billions to support jobs and struggling businesses

BEIJING: China’s central bank said on Friday it was cutting the amount of cash that small and mid-sized banks must hold as reserves, releasing around 400 billion yuan ($56.38 billion) in liquidity to shore up the economy, which has been badly jolted by the coronavirus crisis.

The latest stimulus move comes as the world’s second-largest economy looks likely to shrink for the first time in 30 years and hopes for a quick recovery are being soured by the rapid spread of the disease worldwide, crushing global demand.

The People’s Bank of China said on its website it will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for those banks by 100 basis points (bps) in two equal steps, the first effective as of April 15 and the second as of May 15.

China has about 4,000 small and mid-sized banks. The latest cuts would lower their RRR to 6 percent.

In addition, the interest rates on financial institutions’ excess reserves with the central bank would be reduced to 0.35 percent from 0.72 percent, effective April 7, the PBOC said.

HIGHLIGHTS

● RRR cut by 100 bps for mid-sized, small banks.

● Frees up $56bn in cash to spur lending.

● Cuts rate on excess reserves for banks.

The RRR cut was flagged by the Cabinet on Tuesday along with other support measures as Beijing tries to cushion the economic blow from the pandemic, which is fanning worries about heavy job losses.

While most of the country’s factories are believed to be up and running again, though not at normal levels, a private survey earlier on Friday suggested services companies are still struggling to get back on their feet and cut jobs in March at the fastest pace since at least 2005.

Many are small, privately owned firms with less cash to see them through a prolonged downturn than large, state-owned enterprises.

The export sector is also facing a fresh shock, as the swift spread of the virus around the world prompts many countries to impose draconian containment measures similar to those used in China. Nomura estimates China could lose 18 million export-related jobs in the next one to two quarters as shipments contract 30 percent.

The latest RRR cut would be the third so far this year and the 10th since early 2018, when the economy was starting to slow under the weight of intensifying US-China trade frictions.

The central bank has been easing monetary policy since the virus outbreak escalated in January, cutting the benchmark lending rate and telling banks to offer cheap loans and payment relief to firms that have been hardest hit by the outbreak and anti-virus measures.

While demand for credit is believed to be falling in many countries as the disease takes a heavy toll on businesses, China still has strong control over its banking system.

Chinese banks issued new loans worth 7 trillion yuan ($989 billion) in the first quarter, said Zhou Liang, vice head of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) earlier in the day.

The move to slash the interest rates on excess reserves for banks is aimed at boosting the efficiency for banks to use the funds and better serving small and micro-firms, said the PBOC.

The rate cut on excess reserves indicates that the PBOC is very keen to lower the credit costs for companies, said Commerzbank economist Hao Zhou. PBOC last reduced the rates to 0.72 percent from 0.99 percent during the global financial crisis in 2008.

“The rates for excess reserves are also seen as the floor of the ‘rates corridor’ in China. In this sense, today’s cut has opened a big door for further cut to MLF, which is the ceiling of the corridor.”

After widespread factory closures and travel restrictions imposed by Beijing to contain the spread of the coronavirus that has killed more than 3,300 in the country, businesses in the country have reopened and life for millions of people has started to slowly return to normal.

But economists are forecasting a steep contraction in China’s first quarter gross domestic product, with some expecting a year-year slump of 9 percent or more — the first such contraction in at least three decades.

Policy sources told Reuters that Chinese government could expand 2020 budget deficit to a record high and was considering lowering its economic growth target for 2020 given the prolonged impact of the pandemic. But one central bank adviser has suggested that a growth target not even be set this year due to all the uncertainty.