Lebanon ‘is a hostage to the veto power’ of Hezbollah, says Lebanese economist Nadim Shehadi

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Updated 20 February 2023

Lebanon ‘is a hostage to the veto power’ of Hezbollah, says Lebanese economist Nadim Shehadi

Lebanon ‘is a hostage to the veto power’ of Hezbollah, says Lebanese economist Nadim Shehadi
  • Regards Lebanese crisis as part of a ‘broader regional problem, which needs to be treated as such’
  • Says shortcomings of the political class does not justify calls for the abolition of the entire system

DUBAI: Eighteen years ago this month, Rafik Hariri, a prominent politician and former prime minister of Lebanon, was assassinated by a suicide truck bomb in Beirut. Originally a philanthropist before his engagement in politics, Hariri, who had made his fortune in construction, donated millions of dollars to victims of war and conflict in Lebanon, and later played a major role in ending the civil war and rebuilding the capital city.

Hariri’s assassination marked the beginning of dramatic political change and movements calling for democracy in Lebanon. For years after his assassination, politicians and important figures opposed to the influence of both Syria and Hezbollah in the country were targeted.

Despite an international tribunal finding members of Hezbollah guilty of Hariri’s assassination after passionate calls for an investigation into his death, the Iran-backed militia group has only tightened its grip on Lebanon, keeping the country in a dire state.

“Hariri was killed 18 years ago and it took about 15 years to destroy the whole country after everything he tried to build,” Lebanese economist Nadim Shehadi said on “Frankly Speaking,” the Arab News current affairs talk show which engages with leading policymakers and business leaders.

“The Special Tribunal for Lebanon and the independent international investigation commission came to Lebanon, and it took them about 15 years to produce their result. And for the first time in the history of Lebanon, where we have had several assassinations, for the first time, we had a conviction,” Shehadi said.

But according to him, despite a conviction in Hariri’s case, Hezbollah’s influence over Lebanon means that the real perpetrators of the assassination will go unpunished, and the group will continue to hold the country hostage.

Lebanon’s various political and economic crises have only intensified in recent years, with inflation in the country rising to the highest in the world in 2021 and the value of the Lebanese lira plummeting drastically.

Last year witnessed a series of bank holdups by armed customers seeking to withdraw their frozen deposits. In a country whose capital was formerly referred to as the “Paris of the East,” two-thirds of the population now suffers from poverty, with regular electricity blackouts and shortages of basic necessities such as medicine and water increasingly commonplace.




A protester throws a brick at a bank after setting fire to tires during a demonstration in Beirut on February 16, 2023. (AFP)

The country’s chronic instability has deepened in recent years in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the 2020 Beirut port explosion which killed hundreds, left hundreds of thousands homeless, and damaged over half of the city while inflicting massive economic losses.

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, the two international organizations which campaign against injustice and inequality, have called the investigation into the blast a “farce.”

Shehadi asserts that despite Lebanon’s historically “very healthy and functioning judiciary,” Hezbollah has interfered with the investigation.

This series of disasters have pushed many Lebanese to call for the removal of the entire political class, something that Shehadi views as a “ridiculous demand.”




Lebanese wait to fill their gas cylinders in the southern city of Sidon amidst a deepening economic crisis, on August 10, 2021. (AFP)

In his opinion, Lebanon’s political system is not “sectarianism,” as some observers term it, but rather “a political system based on a social contract between communities and which has maintained the country … even before the state was created.”

“We have a banking system which was the banking center of the region. We have political parties. These are pillars that distinguish Lebanon … and the revolution is asking almost for the dismantlement of all these pillars,” he told Katie Jensen, the host of “Frankly Speaking.”

While Shehadi acknowledges there are definitely issues with Lebanon’s political class, which he says was compromised by 15 years of occupation and political infiltration by the Syrian regime, “this doesn’t justify calling for the abolition of the whole system.”

Eight months after the country’s general elections, Lebanon still has not reached a consensus regarding its president or a functioning parliament.




Lebanese protesters gather to protest against tax increases and official corruption outside the Sidon branch of Lebanese Central Bank in southern city on November 30, 2019. (AFP)

Urgent political reforms are needed to unlock the $3 billion in emergency funds from the International Monetary Fund, but with Lebanon’s political system in tatters and its parliamentarians regularly staging walkouts, accessing these funds seems unlikely.

Shehadi said that while he is not opposed to a “fragmented” parliament with diverse political opinions, “what we have is not a fragmented parliament. What we have is a paralysis of all institutions that’s been building up for 15 years, 17 years almost.”

He added that Lebanon and its institutions are “a hostage to the veto power” of Hezbollah, which has gained footholds in Lebanon by means of assassinations and building of political alliances.

Shehadi compares Hezbollah’s gradual infiltration of state institutions in Lebanon to the behavior of drug cartels in power in narco-states in Latin America.




Hezbollah supporters attend a televised speech by the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut's southern suburbs on January 3, 2023. (AFP)

“They bribe politicians, the judiciary, the police, the army. Those who cannot be co-opted, if you like, are probably dead, and those who can be framed or blackmailed — that’s how criminal organizations gain power in a country,” he said.

The Lebanese parliament has held eleven electoral sessions to elect the president since Sept. 29 last year, with every session failing to elect a candidate.

In recent days, Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, has emerged as a potential contender. However, this would require a constitutional amendment, and consensus from the parliament, which is currently headed by Speaker Nabih Berri.

Though he calls Berri “a brilliant operator” who is familiar with the ins and outs of Lebanon’s tangled political web, Shehadi says Berri is “also a hostage himself.”

Berri is the leader of the Amal Movement, which engaged in a years-long war with Hezbollah in the 1980s which saw thousands killed.




In this photo taken on June 6, 2020, Lebanese troops block supporters of the Lebanese Shiite movements Hezbollah and Amal trying to crash through a rally in Beirut decrying the collapse of the economy. (AFP)

“It ended with an agreement between them, sponsored by Iran and Syria, whereby they basically formed one block in parliament and one list, which means they have the monopoly of Shiite representation. They do not have a monopoly of Shiite support, but they have the monopoly of Shiite representation because of the way they manipulate lists in their areas,” Shehadi said.

During multiple electoral sessions stretching from September 2022 to January this year, many MPs left their ballot papers blank, with some in early sessions even casting their votes for “For Lebanon,” “Righteous dictator,” and “Nobody.”

Shehadi explained that major decisions and appointments within the Lebanese administration must be made by consensus, and with the signature of the president, speaker of the parliament, and prime minister. In the midst of the current political power vacuum, this means that the government in Lebanon has all but ceased to function.

“We had that for 29 months, without a president, without a parliament, and without a functioning government … we had a caretaker government, until our politicians, if you like, compromised and accepted to elect the favorite candidate of Hezbollah. So, we are in the same position, and it’s a difficult position because the longer we resist, the more damage there is, and I think our economic collapse is mainly caused by paralysis,” Shehadi said.




A January 19, 2023, photo shows Lebanon's Parliament convening to elect a new president. Because of sectarian divisions, the election failed. (AFP file)

“The priority now is to have a president and a functioning parliament and a functioning government so that state institutions do not collapse further.”

Shehadi added that though there is no shortage of credible candidates, the parliament is “held hostage, and the whole system is held hostage because you need a certain majority to start the process of elections. You need a two-thirds plus one majority, which means that one-third of parliament can spoil the process.”

Even if this litany of political challenges were overcome and Lebanon managed to receive assistance from the IMF, Shehadi said that IMF funds would not be a solution to all of Lebanon’s financial problems. However, he stressed that “engagement with the IMF is crucial.”

“Following the IMF recommendations is very important, especially on fiscal and monetary policy. There’s a lot of opposition to some of the IMF reforms, which I understand,” he said, adding that many observers say that $3 billion in funds will do very little to alleviate the country’s $90 billion deficit.

“But I think, in my view, it’s more important to remain engaged. The country is being paralyzed and isolated from the West, from the Arab countries, and now will be isolated from international institutions too, like the IMF and the World Bank and the UN and all that. It’s very damaging to ignore the IMF route.”




Nadim Shehadi speaks to Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen. (Supplied)

Shehadi concurs with the World Bank’s assessment of the meltdown in Lebanon as one of the worst modern crises in recent history. But asked if he thinks there is a way out of the quagmire, he replied: “Yes, but I don’t see it only for Lebanon. The whole region is suffering from the same problem. The Lebanese case is similar to what is happening in Palestine, in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen, and this could spread to other countries in the region who could be vulnerable.”

He continued: “It should be treated as a regional phenomenon, which is, basically, the role of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC, as a paramilitary, non-state actor, has taken over the Iranian state and society in the same way as Hezbollah is acting in Lebanon, in the same way as Iranian-sponsored militias are behaving in Iraq, and definitely in the same way as Hamas has paralyzed the whole of the peace process in Palestine.”




Hezbollah supporters attend a memorial service in Beirut for Qasem Soleimani, the slain top commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. (AFP file)

Under the circumstances, Shehadi said the multidimensional crisis in Lebanon is part of a “broader regional problem, which needs to be treated as such. Lebanon is the fault line or the weakest point. A lot of the region’s ills, or problems, surface in Lebanon first.”

Because of this, Shehadi added, international and regional engagement and cooperation are crucial components to solving Lebanon’s crisis, and that the international community must refrain from seeing Lebanon as a hopeless case.

“We are definitely hostages, but we still have a say in the country and we need international support to get out of the grip of (Hezbollah). And again, the grip is regional. So, our fate is similar to Iraq, similar to Palestine, similar to Syria, and similar to Yemen,” he said.

“I don’t think one can see it in a fragmented way. And it’s wrong to abandon a place just because it’s considered to be lost. Lebanon is not a lost case.”

 

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Spiking violence strains sectarian ties in Iraqi province

Spiking violence strains sectarian ties in Iraqi province
Updated 10 sec ago

Spiking violence strains sectarian ties in Iraqi province

Spiking violence strains sectarian ties in Iraqi province
  • The Iranian-backed Badr Organization, a state-sanctioned militia within the Popular Mobilization Forces with a political wing, wrested control of the province from Daesh in 2015

MUQDADIYAH: Hussein Maytham and his family were driving past the palm tree grove near their home after a quiet evening shopping for toys for his younger cousins when their car hit a bomb planted on the moon-lit road.
“I only remember the explosion,” Maytham, 16, said weakly from his hospital bed, his pale arms speckled brown by shrapnel. The attack took place earlier this month in the Shiite-majority village of Hazanieh. The force of the blast hurled the teenager out of the vehicle, but his family — his parents, an aunt and three cousins — perished in the fiery carnage. Residents say gunmen hidden nearby in irrigation canals opened fire, killing two others.
This is the latest in a series of attacks witnessed over the last month in the central Iraqi province of Diyala, located north and east of Baghdad. Security officials say at least 19 civilians have been killed by unidentified assailants, including in two targeted attacks.
The violence is pitting communities against each other in the ethnically and religiously diverse province. It also raises questions whether the relative calm and stability that has prevailed in much of Iraq in the years since the defeat of Daesh can be sustained.
Iraq as a whole has moved on from the conditions that enabled the rise of Daesh and the large-scale bloody sectarian violence that erupted after the US-led invasion 20 years ago, according to Mohanad Adnan, a political analyst and partner at the Roya Development Group.
But some parts of the country, including Diyala, remain tense, with occasional waves of violence reopening old wounds. “There are a few villages, especially in Diyala, where they have not overcome what happened in the past,” said Adnan.
Officials, residents, and analysts say at least one instance of violence in Diyala appears to be a sectarian reprisal by Shiites against Sunnis over a Daesh-claimed attack. But they say other killings were carried out by Shiites against Shiites, as rival militias and their tribal and political allies that control the province struggle over influence and lucrative racketeering networks. Diyala, bordering both Iran and Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, is a prime conduit for smuggling, including drugs.

HIGHLIGHT

The violence is pitting communities against each other in the ethnically and religiously diverse province. It also raises questions whether the relative calm and stability that has prevailed in much of Iraq in the years since the defeat of Daesh can be sustained.

The Iranian-backed Badr Organization, a state-sanctioned militia within the Popular Mobilization Forces with a political wing, wrested control of the province from Daesh in 2015. Since then, it has asserted its dominance over several Shiite political parties and their associated paramilitaries, as well as Sunni groups.
Although most Sunni residents displaced during the war against Daesh have returned to the province, they say they are often viewed with suspicion by authorities and neighbors due to their perceived affiliation with the extremists.
When remnants of the group stage attacks on civilians or security forces, it often prompts a spiral of retaliatory attacks.
In the Sunni village of Jalaylah, nine people, including women and children, were killed in a gruesome attack in late February, two months after they were blamed for allowing a Daesh attack on a neighboring village, according to security officials.
The attackers moved openly through the area, said villager Awadh Al-Azzawi. “They didn’t wear masks. Their faces were clear,” he said.
Residents accuse members of the nearby Shiite village Albu Bali, where Daesh killed nine in December, of carrying out the attack in revenge. They say the perpetrators belong to local militias using weapons given to them by the state. Security officials affiliated with the armed groups declined to comment.

 


5 killed in west Sudan tribal violence

5 killed in west Sudan tribal violence
Updated 7 min 2 sec ago

5 killed in west Sudan tribal violence

5 killed in west Sudan tribal violence
  • The violence between African Masalit tribesmen and Arab shepherds in West Darfur erupted on Thursday after two armed assailants fatally shot a merchant in a remote area

CAIRO: Two days of tribal violence in western Sudan’s long-troubled Darfur region killed at least 5 people, tribal leaders and a rights group said on Friday.
The violence between African Masalit tribesmen and Arab shepherds in West Darfur erupted on Thursday after two armed assailants fatally shot a merchant in a remote area, leaders from both groups said.
In a statement, Masalit tribesmen accused Arab militia of being behind the killing. The slaying sparked a series of targeted attacks that killed at least four more people, the tribal leaders and the rights group both said.
Five victims were later identified by the Darfur Bar Association, a Sudanese legal group focusing on human rights in the western province. The group called on both sides to de-escalate tensions.
The violence comes as wrangling cross-party talks continue in Khartoum over how the African country will usher in a civilian government following 17 months of military rule.
Sudan has been steeped in chaos after a military coup, led by the country’s top Gen. Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan, removed a Western-backed government in October 2021, upending its short-lived transition to democracy.
But last December the country’s ruling military and various pro-democracy forces signed a preliminary agreement pledging to reinstate the transition.
Last week, signatories to December’s agreement vowed to begin establishing a new civilian-led transitional government April 11. However, many major political forces in the country remain opposed to the deal.
Since the military takeover, Sudan has also seen a spike in inter-tribal violence in the country’s west and south.
Analysts see the violence and growing insecurity in Sudan’s far-flung regions as a product of the power vacuum caused by the military takeover.
The Darfur crisis was sparked in 2003 by armed opposition groups who accused the central government of excluding their regions and people from wealth and power-sharing as well as development processes.
Over 2.7 million people have been displaced and are living in camps across Darfur. About 300,000 Darfuri refuges are now living in neighboring Chad.
The UN estimates that around 4.7 million people are still affected by the situation, denied basic human rights and relying on humanitarian aid.

 


Biden says US will ‘forcefully’ protect its personnel in Syria

Biden says US will ‘forcefully’ protect its personnel in Syria
Updated 40 min 32 sec ago

Biden says US will ‘forcefully’ protect its personnel in Syria

Biden says US will ‘forcefully’ protect its personnel in Syria
  • Death toll in airstrikes rises to 19 — three regime soldiers, 16 members of Iran-backed forces
  • The US does not, does not seek conflict with Iran, but Iran and its proxies should be prepared for the US to act forcefully ‘to protect our people.’

BEIRUT, OTTAWA: The death toll from retaliatory US strikes on Iran-linked groups in Syria following a deadly drone attack has risen to 19, a war monitor said on Saturday.
President Joe Biden said that the US would respond “forcefully” to protect its personnel.
Further rocket attacks by Iran-backed militias took place late on Friday, prompting more strikes by coalition warplanes, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.
Washington carried out the initial strikes after the Pentagon said a US contractor died — and another contractor and five military personnel were wounded — by a drone “of Iranian origin” that struck a US-led coalition base near Hasakah in northeastern Syria on Thursday.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that, at President Joe Biden’s direction, he had ordered the “precision airstrikes ... in eastern Syria against facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.”
On Saturday, the Britain-based Observatory, which has a wide network of sources on the ground, said 19 people were killed in the first wave of US strikes — three Syrian regime soldiers and 16 members of Iran-backed forces, including 11 Syrian nationals. Hours after the strikes, 10 rockets were fired at American and coalition forces at the Green Village base in northeast Syria, the US Central Command said.
There were no injuries or damage to facilities at the base, but one rocket struck a home around five km away, causing minor wounds to two women and two children, CENTCOM added.
Iran-backed militias later on Friday targeted a base in the Conoco gas field, prompting retaliatory strikes from coalition warplanes on targets in Deir Ezzor city, the observatory said.
The war monitor said rocket fire then targeted coalition facilities at the Al-Omar oil field base and in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, “causing material damage.”
A “cautious calm” returned to the Deir Ezzor area in the early hours of Saturday morning, the observatory said.
The Pentagon said two F-15 fighters launched the retaliatory attack — which spokesman Pat Ryder said was to protect US personnel.
The strikes “were intended to send a very clear message that we will take the protection of our personnel seriously and that we will respond quickly and decisively if they are threatened,” he said.
They were “proportionate and deliberate action intended to limit the risk of escalation to minimize casualties,” he said.
Two of the US service members wounded on Thursday were treated on site, while the three other troops and one US contractor were evacuated to Iraq, the Pentagon said.
“We will always take all necessary measures to defend our people and will always respond at a time and place of our choosing,” said CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla.
In January, the US military said three one-way attack drones were launched against the Al-Tanf garrison in Syria, with one breaching its air defenses and wounding two allied Syrian fighters. Last August, Biden ordered similar retaliatory strikes in Deir Ezzor province after several drones targeted a coalition outpost, without causing any casualties.
“We know that these groups are sponsored by Iran,” Ryder said.
“So Iran certainly plays a role in terms of ensuring that this type of activity doesn’t happen,” he said.
Meanwhile, Biden said: “The United States does not, does not seek conflict with Iran,” Biden said in Ottawa, Canada, where he is on a state visit. But he said Iran and its proxies should be prepared for the US “to act forcefully to protect our people. That’s exactly what happened last night.”
Biden, speaking during a press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, expressed his “deepest condolences” to the family of the American killed and well-wishes for the injured.
US Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, the top US commander for the Middle East, warned that its forces could carry out additional strikes if needed. “We are postured for scalable options in the face of any additional Iranian attacks,” Kurilla said in a statement.

 


Israel: 2 soldiers wounded in West Bank drive-by shooting

Israel: 2 soldiers wounded in West Bank drive-by shooting
Updated 7 min 25 sec ago

Israel: 2 soldiers wounded in West Bank drive-by shooting

Israel: 2 soldiers wounded in West Bank drive-by shooting
  • The attack was the third to take place in the Palestinian town of Huwara in less than a month
  • One soldier was seriously wounded and the second was in moderate condition

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military said two soldiers were wounded, one severely, Saturday evening in a drive-by shooting in the occupied West Bank, the latest in months-long violence between Israel and the Palestinians.
The attack was the third to take place in the Palestinian town of Hawara in less than a month. One soldier was seriously wounded and the second was in moderate condition, the military said. A manhunt was launched as forces sealed roads leading to Hawara.
No Palestinian group claimed responsibility for the shooting attack, but Hamas, the militant group ruling the Gaza Strip, praised it.
“The resistance in the West Bank can surprise the occupation every time and the occupation cannot enjoy safety,” Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said.
Violence has surged in recent months in the West Bank and east Jerusalem amid near-daily Israeli arrest raids in Palestinian-controlled areas and a string of Palestinian attacks.
US-backed regional efforts to defuse tensions have led to the meeting of Israeli and Palestinian officials in Jordan and Egypt respectively, where parties hoped to prevent a further escalation during the holy fasting month of Ramadan.
On Feb. 27, when Israeli and Palestinian officials met in Jordan’s Aqaba, a Palestinian gunman shot and killed two Israelis in Hawara. Another shooting attack in Hawara took place as the parties met again in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh, wounding two Israelis.
Eighty-six Palestinians have been killed by Israeli or settler fire this year, according to an Associated Press tally. Palestinian attacks have killed 15 Israelis in the same period.
Israel says most of those killed have been militants. But stone-throwing youths protesting the incursions and people not involved in the confrontations have also been killed.
Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians seek those territories for their future independent state.

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Houthi drone attacks Yemen defense minister’s convoy in Taiz

File photo of Yemeni Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Mohsen Al-Daeri. (Screenshot)
File photo of Yemeni Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Mohsen Al-Daeri. (Screenshot)
Updated 7 min 37 sec ago

Houthi drone attacks Yemen defense minister’s convoy in Taiz

File photo of Yemeni Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Mohsen Al-Daeri. (Screenshot)
  • Muammar Al-Eryani, Yemen’s information minister, accused the Houthis of attempting to derail peace attempts

AL-MUKALLA: A Yemeni government soldier was killed and two others wounded on Saturday when an explosives-laden drone fired by Iran-backed Houthis attacked a convoy conveying senior military leaders, including Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Mohsen Al-Daeri, in the besieged city of Taiz, Yemeni officials and local media said.

A Yemeni government official told Arab News that the Houthis launched a drone at a convoy carrying the defense minister, the army’s chief of staff, and the governor of Taiz as they traveled from the Red Sea town of Mocha to Taiz. Al-Daeri and all other government officials were unhurt.

Muammar Al-Eryani, Yemen’s information minister, accused the Houthis of attempting to derail peace attempts.  

“This sinful targeting, which comes in the wake of the terrorist Houthi militia’s continuous escalation on multiple fronts, confirms its insistence on sabotaging efforts to restore the ceasefire and calm the situation,” the minister said on Twitter. 

Al-Eryani had earlier warned that large-scale military operations would resume throughout the nation if the Houthis continued their assaults on government soldiers, particularly in the central province of Marib. 

Scores of fighters have been killed or injured since early last week, when the Houthis began a series of intense assaults on government troops in the district of Hareb, south of Marib province, capturing a few villages.

Those attacks, as well as other less intense shelling and ground attacks in Taiz, have dashed hopes of a peaceful solution to the war, which had arisen following the latest successful round of prisoner-swap talks between the Houthis and the Yemeni government, which resulted in an agreement to release more than 800 prisoners during Ramadan.

Al-Eryani said Houthi raids in Hareb had resulted in the displacement of a significant number of people and posed the prospect of all-out conflict, which would put an end to the country’s relative peace since the UN-brokered ceasefire came into force in April last year.

Speaking to a group of military personnel in Taiz’s Al-Bareh on Friday, the minister pledged to defeat the Houthis, retake Sanaa and other areas currently controlled by the Iran-backed militias, and urged soldiers to remain alert.

“To reclaim every square inch of our territory, retake our capital, and restore our legitimate leadership to its proper position, we must all share the same spirit and direct our firearms against these militias,” the minister said. 

Brig. Gen. Mohammed Al-Kumaim, a Yemeni military analyst, said the Houthis have used the UN-brokered truce to regroup, and to target military officials and government-controlled areas. He suggested that the Yemeni government should abandon any agreements with the Houthis and resume military operations.

“Following this attack on the convoy of the highest military authority in the Yemeni army, the government is expected to terminate all accords, including the Stockholm Agreement, and unleash the fronts,” Al-Kumaim said.

Since October, the Yemeni government has labeled the Houthis a terrorist organization. It threatened to withdraw from the Stockholm Agreement and other agreements with the Houthis and resume military offensives when the Houthis shelled oil facilities in Hadramout and Shabwa with drones and missiles, halting Yemen’s oil exports.